32 NFT predictions from 2021-2022 that failed to materialize

NFT market predictions from 2021-2022 fall short

In 2021 and 2022, non-fungible tokens (NFTs)—digital certificates of ownership stored on a blockchain—were predicted to revolutionize industries like insurance, real estate, gaming, fashion, and social media. A recent review of 32 high-profile predictions shows most did not come true by 2026.

The NFT market, which peaked at billions of dollars in 2022, has since declined sharply. Many projects have been abandoned, and few of the promised use cases have been adopted.

Key predictions that did not happen

• Insurance, real estate, and tax records were not converted into NFTs, despite predictions from investor Kevin O’Leary.
• Mark Cuban’s claim that NFTs would “turn the collectibles industry upside down” did not materialize. His NBA team, the Dallas Mavericks, also never adopted NFT-based tickets.
• The blockchain game Star Atlas was predicted to attract “billions of users,” but its latest report showed only 2,000 monthly active users before tracking stopped.
• Galaxy Digital’s Brian Novogratz predicted healthcare records and fashion brands would widely adopt NFTs—neither happened.
• Jefferies forecasted an $80 billion NFT market by 2025, but the current market is estimated at around $1.7 billion.
• Sky Mavis co-founder Aleksander Larsen claimed blockchain games would create “GDP we’ve never even thought about,” but the flagship game Axie Infinity collapsed.
• Meta (formerly Facebook) briefly added NFTs to Instagram before removing the feature. Mark Zuckerberg’s vision of NFT-based avatar clothing was never implemented.
• Nike sold its NFT-focused company RTFKT after acquiring it in 2021.
• Disney’s metaverse projects were canceled after leadership changes.
• Coinbase shut down its NFT marketplace in 2024, despite CEO Brian Armstrong calling it a potential “bigger” business than crypto trading.

Why the predictions missed the mark

The review highlights a pattern of overoptimism. Many predictions assumed NFTs would become mainstream in industries where they offered little practical benefit. Others relied on speculative use cases, like metaverse economies, that never developed.

Some projects, like Axie Infinity, faced security issues, including a $625 million hack linked to North Korean actors. Others, like Universal Music’s Bored Ape band, failed to deliver on promised content.

What is confirmed

• The NFT market peaked in 2022 and has since declined significantly.
• Major companies, including Coinbase, Meta, and Nike, have abandoned or sold their NFT projects.
• Few of the predicted real-world use cases for NFTs have been adopted.
• Many high-profile NFT collections and platforms have lost value or shut down.

What remains unclear

• Whether NFTs will find long-term use cases beyond digital art and collectibles.
• If any of the original predictions could still materialize in a different form.
• How much of the early hype was driven by market speculation rather than practical utility.

Why this matters for crypto

The failure of these predictions shows the risks of overestimating new technology. While NFTs remain a niche market, their struggles highlight the gap between hype and real-world adoption in crypto.

Sources

• Protos