A $3.2 Million Bitcoin Butterfly Options Trade Targets $95,000 BTC Price
Trader places $3.2 million bet on bitcoin reaching $95,000
A trader has executed a $3.17 million options trade suggesting they expect bitcoin to climb to around $95,000 by the end of October 2026. At the time of the trade, bitcoin was trading near $85,000, meaning the position is betting on roughly a $10,000 increase over the next four weeks.
The trade was carried out through the liquidity network Paradigm and involved five blocks of options contracts, according to data source Laevitas.
How the butterfly options strategy works
The trade used a strategy called a "long call butterfly." This is an options approach that earns the most when the underlying asset closes near a middle target price when the contracts expire.
Specifically, the trader:
- Bought call options with a strike price of $90,000 (expiring Oct. 30)
- Sold twice as many call options with a strike price of $95,000
- Bought call options with a strike price of $100,000
Each block consisted of 1,000 contracts at $90,000, 2,000 contracts at $95,000, and 1,000 contracts at $100,000. A call option gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase an asset at a set price by a specific date.
The trade would generate a profit if bitcoin lands between $90,000 and $100,000 at expiry, with maximum gain at $95,000. If bitcoin falls outside that range, the payoff is zero and the trader loses the $3.17 million paid to set up the position.
What the trade signals about market positioning
The butterfly trade was not the only sign of growing bullish sentiment. Traders have also increased demand for call options, pushing short-term risk reversals higher, according to Laser Digital.
Laser Digital noted in a communication shared with CoinDesk: "Risk reversals have also been volatile, with front-end RRs flipping aggressively in favour of calls during the move up to $85K, before retracing somewhat this morning."
The options market also showed broader expectations for price swings across several tokens. Coinbase Markets reported that options were pricing one-standard-deviation moves of 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ether, and 5.0% for bitcoin through Sept. 27.
These figures measure expected volatility rather than direction, with XRP showing the highest expected price swings.
What is confirmed and what remains unclear
Confirmed: The trade was executed via Paradigm, its structure and size are documented by Laevitas, and the net cost was approximately $3.17 million. Bitcoin was trading around $85,000 at the time.
Unclear: The identity of the trader and their full intent remain unknown. Whether the position reflects a genuine directional view or a more complex hedging strategy cannot be determined from the available information.
Why this matters
Large options trades like this can offer a window into how sophisticated market participants are positioning themselves. While a single trade does not guarantee an outcome, the size and structure suggest meaningful conviction that bitcoin could move toward $95,000 in the near term.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
Related Posts
Shinhan Asset Management partners with Solana Foundation for tokenized fund pilot
Core DAO validator reward error prompts exchange restrictions on CORE transfers
FT Source Article Unavailable: No Story Content Provided
