Bernstein: Clarity Act failure lets stablecoin rewards continue, expects swift SEC and CFTC rulemaking
Senate vote shifts crypto rulemaking to federal agencies
Research and brokerage firm Bernstein said in a Wednesday note to clients that the U.S. Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act means responsibility for the next phase of crypto rulemaking now falls to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), two federal agencies that oversee financial markets and trading.
The Clarity Act, a major piece of legislation aimed at setting clear rules for digital assets, failed a procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday by a tally of 49 to 50, falling 11 votes short of the 60 needed to move forward. Negotiations broke down over ethics provisions tied to President Donald Trump's crypto interests.
What Bernstein expects from SEC and CFTC
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, said they expect the SEC and CFTC to move toward "specific rule-making" and that the process will be "aggressive and swift" to make up for time spent on the failed legislation.
According to Bernstein, the agencies are likely to focus on several areas:
- Classifying native crypto tokens, meaning deciding which tokens are securities (investment contracts regulated like stocks) and which are commodities
- Providing protections for decentralized finance (DeFi) and self-custody infrastructure, where users hold their own crypto instead of relying on a third party
- Setting rules for equity tokenization, the process of putting traditional stocks or shares on a blockchain
- Speeding up approvals of real-world-asset perpetual futures, which are contracts tied to assets like bonds or commodities with no expiry date
- Coordinating between the SEC and CFTC on single-stock perpetuals, similar futures contracts tied to individual company shares
- Amending rules around federal sports event contracts and their classification as swaps, which are agreements to exchange one asset for another
Stablecoin rewards on idle balances stay in place
Because the legislation did not pass, the framework for stablecoin rewards remains unchanged. Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to hold a steady value, usually pegged to the U.S. dollar.
Bernstein noted that the compromise text would have banned rewards on idle stablecoin balances, meaning balances sitting unused in a user's account, and would have tied such rewards to active customer activity. With the bill stalled, platforms such as Coinbase can continue offering rewards on idle balances.
"Stablecoins should be just fine since they are governed by GENIUS," the Bernstein analysts wrote, referring to the GENIUS Act, a separate law that created a framework for stablecoin issuers.
StoneX analysts call the bill dead for this Congress
Separately, StoneX Financial analysts led by Mark Palmer said the Clarity Act is dead for this Congress, noting that only 14 working days remain in the Senate before campaign season begins.
They pointed to comments from Sen. Cynthia Lummis suggesting the next realistic chance for the Clarity Act may not come until 2030. They also noted that prediction market platform Polymarket showed the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 falling from 82% in February to 16% before the vote.
Open question on stablecoin issuer yield rules
StoneX also raised a separate issue involving the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), two U.S. banking regulators. The agencies have proposed rules that could presume a stablecoin issuer violates the GENIUS Act's ban on issuer yield, the interest or returns paid to stablecoin holders, if the issuer pays an affiliate that then rewards those holders. StoneX said the matter could ultimately end up in court once the GENIUS Act takes effect in January 2027.
Where things stand
What is confirmed: The Clarity Act failed a 49-50 procedural vote on Tuesday. Stablecoin rewards on idle balances remain allowed because the bill did not pass.
What is reported: Bernstein predicts "aggressive and swift" SEC and CFTC rulemaking on crypto classification, DeFi protections, tokenization, and related areas. StoneX describes the bill as dead for this Congress.
What is still unclear: Whether the Clarity Act will be revived before the end of this Congress, when exactly SEC and CFTC rulemaking will move forward, and how the OCC and FDIC proposals on stablecoin yield will be resolved.