Bernstein expects prediction market volume to reach $10 trillion a year by 2035
Bernstein sees $10 trillion in yearly prediction market trades by 2035
Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein expect annual trading volume on prediction markets to reach $10 trillion by 2035. Prediction markets are platforms where users trade on whether an event will happen, such as an election result or a sports outcome.
The forecast comes from a note to clients on Tuesday, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani. It compares with an estimated $410 billion in volume for 2026, according to the firm.
Bernstein also expects contracts tied to financial assets to become the largest part of the market, overtaking sports.
The numbers behind the forecast
- Bernstein expects volumes to grow at about 70% a year between 2025 and 2035.
- The firm says industry-wide activity rose from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in 2026 through August.
- Crypto, equities and commodities are projected to grow from roughly 12% of volumes in 2025 to 49% by 2035.
- Sports' share is expected to fall from 61% to 38% over the same period.
These are Bernstein projections, not reported market results.
Crypto and commodity contracts are already growing, Bernstein says
Bernstein said the shift is already visible in 2026 trading. Short-duration contracts in crypto and commodities, including 15-minute bitcoin (BTC) markets, helped lift activity this year, the analysts said.
On Kalshi, the analysts said crypto's share of volume rose from less than 5% in January to about 20% in August. They also said commodity trading volume grew from less than $2 million in 2025 to roughly $590 million so far in 2026, including $410 million in August alone.
Kalshi held about 60% of industry volume through August, up from 35% in 2025, according to Bernstein.
Bernstein said sports volumes surged around the FIFA World Cup and stayed at record levels after the tournament ended.
On Polymarket, Bernstein said sports contracts made up about 52% of global volume so far in 2026, compared with 39% in 2025. Politics represented 22%, down from 32%, while crypto accounted for about 21% of Polymarket's global volume over the period.
New contract types Bernstein expects to expand
The analysts pointed to two product areas they expect to grow. They wrote that they expect new products such as KPI markets, which let users trade a single company metric, such as production, deliveries or subscriber growth, instead of the stock price itself.
They added that perpetual futures, a type of contract without an expiry date, are expanding from crypto into commodities and single-stock contracts.
The market Bernstein measured against
Bernstein estimates the addressable market for financial-asset contracts at roughly $700 trillion in 2025, rising to $900 trillion by 2035.
The firm's model assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of that pool by 2035, which the analysts said would produce about $4.7 trillion in annual volume.
US sports market rules may stay unsettled until 2027-28
On regulation, Bernstein said final clarity for US sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027-28. The analysts cited conflicting court decisions over federal derivatives oversight and state gaming authority.
What is confirmed and what is still uncertain
The confirmed information in this story is that Bernstein published a client note with these figures and forecasts. The volume targets, market-share projections and growth rates are the firm's estimates and expectations, not results that have happened.
The trading data for Kalshi and Polymarket is also reported by Bernstein, and the source material does not include independent confirmation of those figures. Forecasts of this kind can change if regulation, demand or competition develops differently than the firm assumes.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
Related Posts
Coldcard Adds New Security Features After $130 Million Bitcoin Exploit
Metaplanet Cuts Stock Pool by 41% and Announces Hong Kong Expansion
