Bill Miller IV claims Bitcoin is more undervalued now than at last cycle's peak due to fiscal deficits

Investor argues wider gap between Bitcoin price and fair value

Bill Miller IV, chairman and CEO of Miller Value Partners, stated that he has never been more bullish on Bitcoin. His central argument is that while Bitcoin’s market capitalization is roughly the same as it was at the previous cycle’s peak, the global fiscal environment has deteriorated significantly.

Miller believes these worsening financial conditions mean the difference between Bitcoin’s current price and its fair value is larger than ever before.

Key arguments from Miller

• Fiscal Deficits: The U.S. deficit is roughly equal to Bitcoin’s entire market cap, which Miller uses to frame his valuation thesis.
• Capital Governance: Miller views Bitcoin as a denominator for capital rather than a traditional asset to be valued.
• Market Dynamics: He discussed the rotation out of AI trades and global liquidity flows from Japan and U.S. Treasuries.
• Gold Comparison: Miller noted that gold has outperformed Bitcoin recently, which he attributes to a lag in market narratives rather than intrinsic value differences.
• Institutional Barriers: He mentioned that funds still face restrictions on holding Bitcoin directly.

Context from the source

The video interview, released by Bitcoin Magazine on September 20, 2026, covers Miller’s perspective on current market conditions. He addresses the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate hike, energy prices, and inflation, linking them to the stability of process and rule of law for capital.

Miller also explained that even if U.S. companies can outpace debt growth, Bitcoin remains a critical tool for governance in a system where traditional currency units may change. He described Bitcoin as a denominator for capital that is not backed by physical force.

Confirmed details

Bill Miller IV is the CEO of Miller Value Partners. The interview took place on a channel operated by Bitcoin Magazine. The video runtime is approximately 12 minutes. Miller explicitly stated he is more bullish on Bitcoin now than at the last cycle peak due to fiscal deterioration.

Unclear points

The source material does not provide specific numerical figures for the fair value gap or the exact market capitalization comparison. It also does not detail the specific mechanisms by which funds are currently blocked from holding Bitcoin, only noting that this restriction exists.

Sources

• Bitcoin Magazine

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