Bitcoin clears its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks
Bitcoin clears its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks
Bitcoin closed the week ended Sept. 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn called the milestone a potentially important confirmation that the market's bear phase may have run its course.
The cryptocurrency rose nearly 6 percent during the week and was trading around $81,000, extending its rebound to 29 percent over the past 35 days. The move pushed Bitcoin's weekly candlestick above the 50-week average, rather than merely testing it.
Key numbers
- Bitcoin gained nearly 6 percent over the week and 29 percent over 35 days.
- The cryptocurrency was trading around $81,000 at the time of reporting.
- Bitcoin has been below its 50-week moving average for 45 weeks before this crossover.
- The 50-week moving average sits at roughly $78,115.
Why the 50-week moving average matters
The 50-week moving average is simply the average weekly closing price over roughly the past year. In market analysis, it is often used as a proxy for Bitcoin's long-term trend.
During healthy advances, Bitcoin tends to trade above the line. During prolonged declines, rallies often fail below it. Galaxy has described the average as a kind of ceiling during major Bitcoin drawdowns. Once the cryptocurrency falls below it, attempts to reclaim the level have historically failed until the market is closer to a durable low.
Bitcoin trades around the clock, but its weekly candle closes at 23:59 UTC on Sunday. Analysts typically place more weight on weekly candles holding above a major moving average than on brief moves through it.
Historical precedent
Galaxy examined major Bitcoin slumps since 2011 and found that Bitcoin closed a week back above its 50-week moving average 13 times. In 11 of those instances, the market did not go on to set a new low, suggesting the worst of the decline had already passed.
After the 2011 crash, Bitcoin reclaimed the average in January 2012. The decline was effectively over, and BTC went on to stage a roughly 600-fold rally, rising from around $2 to a then-record high near $1,200 in late 2013.
Following the 2014-15 bear market, Bitcoin crossed back above the line in October 2015. The article notes it did not revisit the cycle low, though the full details of what followed were cut off in the source.
What is confirmed
- Bitcoin closed the week ended Sept. 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks.
- Bitcoin gained nearly 6 percent during that week and 29 percent over 35 days.
- Galaxy Research analyzed 13 historical instances of Bitcoin crossing back above the 50-week average since 2011, finding that 11 of those did not lead to new lows.
- Historical examples include the January 2012 crossover after the 2011 crash, which preceded a roughly 600-fold rally.
What is still unclear
Whether Bitcoin can hold above the roughly $78,115 level remains uncertain. The article notes that the outlook depends on whether the cryptocurrency remains above this threshold. The historical data shows that while 11 of 13 past crossovers were not followed by new lows, there were two instances where they were.
Why this matters
The 50-week moving average has served as a reliable dividing line between bear and bull markets in Bitcoin's history. A confirmed crossover above it has often marked the transition from a prolonged decline to a sustained recovery, though past patterns do not guarantee future results.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.