Bitcoin decouples from dollar and U.S. stocks ahead of Federal Reserve rate decision
Bitcoin's links to dollar and U.S. stocks have weakened
Bitcoin has stopped moving in step with the U.S. Dollar Index and major U.S. stock indexes ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that bitcoin's short-term correlation with these traditional market measures has dropped sharply, leaving the largest cryptocurrency trading more on its own.
CoinMarketCap's head of research, Alice Liu, said in a note shared with CoinDesk that bitcoin's short-window correlation with the Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar's strength against a basket of other currencies, now sits at +0.08 over a 15-day window. That compares with -0.54 over the past 30 days, meaning the link between bitcoin and the dollar has nearly disappeared.
Bitcoin's connections to U.S. stocks have also weakened. Its correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.43 from 0.75, and its correlation with the Nasdaq fell to 0.30 from 0.60. The link to gold has also dropped, to 0.28 from 0.69 over 30 days.
Why bitcoin is trading differently
According to CoinMarketCap, the change in bitcoin's behavior is being driven by the Clarity Act, a piece of proposed crypto regulation. The bill failed a key Senate procedural vote on Tuesday, pulling traders' attention toward regulatory news and away from broader economic signals.
Liu noted that protective trades that relied on bitcoin tracking U.S. stocks, known as beta hedges, are less reliable now. "The beta hedge that would have worked Monday is unreliable today, and today's FOMC reaction may be swamped by regulatory follow-through," she said.
A beta hedge is a strategy where an investor takes an opposite position in a related asset to offset potential losses.
What to expect from the Fed decision
The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision is due at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that is largely priced in by markets. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 basis points equals 0.25%.
Most investment banks are forecasting additional rate hikes by the end of the year. Unless Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announces a larger increase or more hawkish guidance than expected, some observers say the Dollar Index could weaken, which would, on its own, be supportive for the cryptocurrency.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email that the current calm in markets can be attributed to expectations around the Fed's signals, which could move volatility more than the already expected 25-basis-point hike.
What is confirmed and what is still unclear
The correlation figures come directly from CoinMarketCap's research note. The expectation of a 25-basis-point rate hike is described as widely held by markets, though the source does not specify which investment banks are making those forecasts. Bitcoin's price at the time of writing was $76,556.31, according to CoinDesk data.
It remains to be seen whether bitcoin will reconnect with the dollar and stock indexes after the Fed announcement or continue to trade based on regulatory news.
Why this matters
When bitcoin moves in line with traditional assets, traders can use familiar strategies to manage risk. The current disconnect means those strategies may not work as well, and traders focused on crypto regulation could have more influence on prices in the short term than usual economic indicators.