Bitcoin difficulty increase could push some miners below power‑cost threshold
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Bitcoin difficulty set to rise, pressuring some rigs
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Bitcoin's next difficulty adjustment is projected to increase the network's mining difficulty by about 5.68% on Oct. 16. If the Bitcoin price, block subsidy and average fees stay the same, this rise would cut expected revenue per hash by roughly 5.37%, potentially leaving rigs with low electricity cushions earning less than their power bills.
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Key numbers
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- Current difficulty: 132.72 trillion (Oct. 14 07:02 UTC) \n
- Projected difficulty increase: 5.68% \n
- Projected revenue drop per hash: 5.37% \n
- Hashprice before adjustment: $39.77 per PH/day \n
- Hashprice after adjustment (if price unchanged): about $37.63 per PH/day \n
- For a 20 J/TH rig at $0.08/kWh: electricity cost $38.40/day per PH/s, turning a $1.37 cushion into a $0.77 shortfall \n
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Confirmed details
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The source reports that the difficulty increase is based on the October 14 snapshot of the network. It also provides a table showing how different efficiencies (15 J/TH to 30 J/TH) would see their electricity‑only tariff ceilings fall after the retarget.
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- 15 J/TH: ceiling falls from 11.05 to 10.45 cents/kWh \n
- 20 J/TH: ceiling falls from 8.29 to 7.84 cents/kWh \n
- 25 J/TH: ceiling falls from 6.63 to 6.27 cents/kWh \n
- 30 J/TH: ceiling falls from 5.52 to 5.23 cents/kWh \n
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Equipment that pays more than these new ceilings would earn less than its power cost under the projected scenario.
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What remains uncertain
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The exact timing depends on the final block count reaching 971,712, and the actual adjustment may shift as more blocks are found. Future Bitcoin price moves, changes in transaction fees or miner outflows could also alter the final hashprice.
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Why miners are watching
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A higher difficulty reduces the chance that a given amount of computing work wins a block reward. For miners operating with thin margins, the projected drop can turn a modest profit into a loss, forcing decisions about upgrades, shutdowns or seeking cheaper electricity.
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Next steps for miners
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The difficulty retarget is scheduled for block 971,712. After that block, the network will publish a new hashprice figure, which miners can use to reassess profitability.
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Sources
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- CryptoSlate \n
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