Bitcoin falls below $77,700 as recent buyers slip into losses
Buyers who bought one to three months ago are now losing money
Bitcoin has fallen below $77,700, the price at which investors who bought one to three months ago entered the market. That move puts those buyers in an aggregate loss, according to onchain data.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $76,500. Analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that once price falls below this level, it could turn into new resistance. Underwater traders may sell when their holdings return to break even, which can add selling pressure.
Key numbers
- Cost basis for one-to-three-month-old buyers: $77,700, now trading around $76,500.
- The nearest lower band for this group is a 12% aggregate loss, equal to $68,400.
- Short-term holders have a cost basis of $75,832 as of Tuesday.
- Their Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) reading is 1.012, just above breakeven.
What the CryptoQuant analysis says
CryptoQuant tracks a metric called Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands, which measures the average price at which different groups of investors entered the market. The one-to-three-month cohort is described as speculative traders who are more sensitive to short-term price moves.
A CryptoQuant contributor said that during bull markets, this cost basis usually acts as support. When price falls below it, the same level often becomes resistance, because traders who have not yet profited may choose to sell rather than keep holding.
The contributor also noted that the cost basis has been rising steadily while Bitcoin has been correcting. That gap has narrowed significantly, meaning price is catching up to where recent buyers paid.
Short-term holders near break even
Below $77,000, Bitcoin is approaching the realized price of short-term holders (STHs). These are investors who have held their BTC without selling for up to 155 days.
At a cost basis of $75,832, the STH MVRV Ratio is 1.012. That metric divides the current market value of coins held by short-term holders by the value at the price they last moved onchain. A reading above 1 means those holders are, on average, still in profit.
CryptoQuant says the next key psychological level is an MVRV reading of 0.85, which it calls an area of tactical capitulation. That reading was last tested at the start of June, with price recovering the level in mid-August.
What is still unclear
The analysis is based on onchain data and represents an interpretation of market structure, not a forecast. It is not confirmed whether Bitcoin will find support at $68,400 or slip further toward the 0.85 MVRV level.
The article does not explain what caused the recent price decline, or whether a rebound is expected.
Why this matters
When recent buyers turn from profit to loss, the market often faces heavier selling as traders look to exit at break even. If $77,700 holds as resistance, price could struggle to rise again until those holders leave the market.
For new investors, the data shows how quickly an aggregate loss can appear once a support level breaks. It does not say anything about long-term value or future prices.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.