Bitcoin holds steady as U.S. strike on Iran lifts oil and shakes stocks
Bitcoin barely moves after U.S. attack on Iran
Bitcoin’s price stayed near $77,580 early Monday after the U.S. launched a strike on an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. The attack, which triggered retaliation from Iran, sent oil prices up nearly 2% and pushed stock markets lower—but bitcoin showed little reaction.
While gold dropped 0.8% and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.5%, bitcoin held its ground, continuing a month-long trend of outperformance. Since August began, bitcoin has climbed 23%, compared to a 9% rise for gold and just 4% for the Nasdaq index.
The stability comes as traders weigh strong demand for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—which let investors buy bitcoin without directly holding it—and speculation about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.
Key numbers from the market reaction
- Bitcoin (BTC): Near $77,580, unchanged in early trading.
- Oil (WTI crude): Up 1.9% to $85.10 per barrel.
- Gold: Down 0.8% to $4,418 per ounce.
- Nasdaq futures: Down 0.5%.
- XRP: Fell 0.8%, while Solana (SOL) dropped 0.6%.
- August gains: Bitcoin +23%, gold +9%, Nasdaq +4%.
- Rate-hike odds: Markets now price a 58% chance of a September Fed increase.
Why bitcoin stayed calm while other markets moved
Analysts point to two key factors behind bitcoin’s resilience:
- Strong ETF demand: Spot bitcoin ETFs—funds that track bitcoin’s price—have seen heavy inflows, supporting its price even during geopolitical stress.
- Fed intervention hopes: Some traders bet the U.S. Treasury’s recent bond buybacks, which aim to stabilize financial markets, could indirectly benefit risk assets like bitcoin.
However, caution remains. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh warned Friday that inflation is still too high, prompting markets to raise bets on a September interest-rate hike. Higher rates typically weigh on risk assets, including stocks and crypto.
“Investors should avoid heavy leverage while uncertainty is high,” said Vikram Subbaraj, CEO of crypto exchange Giottus. He noted bitcoin has near-term support at $77,000 but faces resistance between $79,400–$80,800 ahead of the U.S. jobs report on September 4.
What happens next
The next major test for markets—and bitcoin—will be the U.S. jobs report on September 4. Strong employment data could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike, while weaker numbers might ease those bets.
Traders are also watching:
- Oil prices: Further spikes could pressure stocks but may not sway bitcoin, which has decoupled from traditional markets this month.
- Bitcoin ETF flows: Continued demand could keep supporting bitcoin’s price.
- Fed commentary: More hawkish signals from officials could dampen risk appetite.
