Bitcoin miners face flat competition outlook as dollar hashprice falls
Forward curve points to little growth through December
An October 30 analysis by Hashrate Index said Bitcoin mining competition could stay almost flat through December. At the same time, revenue per unit of mining power in dollars was falling.
Hashrate Index is the mining data and research platform of Luxor. Hashrate means the total computing power used to mine Bitcoin. Hashprice means the expected daily revenue from one unit of that computing power.
The analysis was based on forward contracts. A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell something at a set price later. The levels in the curve are implied by those contracts. They are not observed future hashrate.
Key numbers from the October 30 and November 2 reports
- Implied network hashrate was 1,056 exahashes per second for November and 1,059 for December.
- Both levels were near the average of about 1,062 exahashes per second in the mining period that ended October 29.
- The October 30 analysis also implied 1,100 exahashes per second for March 2027.
- On November 2 at 18:00 UTC, spot hashprice was $32.86 per petahash per second per day.
- That was down 8.7% from $35.99 one week earlier.
- Average forward hashprice was $33.04 per petahash per second per day for November 2026 to April 2027.
Why a competition pause alone does not fix dollar revenue
Mining difficulty rose from 127.45 trillion before the September 19 adjustment to 148.36 trillion on October 29. The source described this as a 16.4% rebound. A pause would keep miners competing at that higher level.
Stable difficulty does not ensure higher dollar revenue. Dollar hashprice also depends on the Bitcoin price, transaction fees, and the block subsidy. The block subsidy is the new Bitcoin paid to miners for each block.
The method behind the curve assumes transaction fees of about 0.02 BTC per block. Different fee outcomes could change how the contract prices should be read.
The November 2 forward average of $33.04 covered November 2026 to April 2027. The October 30 analysis had put $32.88 over an earlier period through March 2027. These averages are indicative benchmarks, not executable offers.
What a forward sale stabilizes and what it leaves exposed
Selling forward can stabilize the benchmark revenue rate for output that matches the contract in amount and dates. This only works if the contract is performed.
Luxor offers a cash-settled non-deliverable forward. In that contract, the seller receives the fixed hashprice minus the daily index rate, multiplied by the contracted hashrate. If the index rises above the fixed rate, the payment reverses.
A deliverable forward is different. It can provide upfront payment from the buyer in return for delivery to Luxor's mining pool. It is subject to seller credit checks and possible delivery margin. Luxor said it is the counterparty on both sides of these contracts.
A hedge does not guarantee that machines keep running. Miners still face electricity costs, uptime, and production shortfalls. Fixed power prices and dollar hedges can align revenue and costs more closely. They do not establish that a miner makes a profit.
Source for this report
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
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