Bitcoin outperforms gold as yields rise; Fidelity analyst sees possible $100,000 rally

Bitcoin holds up as gold drops

Bitcoin is outperforming gold while U.S. Treasury yields climb, and a Fidelity analyst says the largest cryptocurrency could be set for a move toward $100,000.

According to CoinDesk's Daybook newsletter, bitcoin slipped just 1% on Monday, briefly touching lows near $82,500 before recovering to trade around $84,000 at the time of writing. Gold, by contrast, fell nearly 4% on Monday as longer-duration Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007 and the U.S. dollar index rose.

Key numbers

• Bitcoin has risen more than 40% this quarter, according to the report, leaving gold, the S&P 500 and other major assets behind.
• The U.S. dollar index rose 2.7% from 98.78 to nearly 101.50 since Sept. 9.
• Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer says bitcoin has triggered a "double-bottom breakout" above $80,000, a pattern that can point to a $100,000 rally.
• Options traders on Deribit hold large positions in $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000 bitcoin call options.

What Fidelity's analyst says

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, wrote on X on Friday that bitcoin is challenging key resistance at $80,000. "If it breaks it will confirm a double bottom targeting $100K," he said.

A double bottom looks like the letter W on a price chart. The price drops to a low, bounces, falls back near the same level, then rises again. The middle peak acts as resistance. A break above it can signal that sellers have run out of steam.

Timmer's chart shows bitcoin's two lows this year at $60,033 and $57,742, with the middle peak near $82,800.

Options traders are also watching higher prices

The report also points to options positioning. A call option gives the buyer the right to buy bitcoin at a set price and profits when the market rises above it. On Deribit, the $90,000 call is the most popular bitcoin option, with $2.45 billion in open interest, a measure of outstanding contracts. The $95,000 call has $2.33 billion, and the $100,000 call has $1.79 billion.

The uncertainty around $100,000

Whether bitcoin will actually reach $100,000 remains unclear. CoinDesk notes that chart patterns are not guarantees and breakouts often fail, reversing quickly and trapping buyers who chased the move. Options positioning can also change quickly as market trends shift.

Why this matters

Bitcoin's performance stands out because it is beating gold at a time when rising Treasury yields are weakening the yellow metal, according to the report. That is why the possibility of a move to $100,000 is being discussed.

Sources

• CoinDesk