Bitcoin price indicator prints fourth-ever bullish crossover
Bitcoin price indicator prints fourth-ever bullish crossover
Bitcoin's Fisher Transform, a classic price-trend analysis tool created in 2002, has produced a monthly bullish crossover for only the fourth time in the cryptocurrency's history. The signal was flagged by analyst Willy Woo and reported by Cointelegraph on September 18, 2026, when Bitcoin was trading near $81,400.
A bullish crossover happens when the indicator's two lines cross after a sharp upward turn. Woo says the previous three monthly crossovers all lined up with Bitcoin bear-market bottoms.
Key numbers
- The latest crossover happened at a Fisher reading of -2.26, according to the article body.
- In late 2022, the indicator reached -3.83 around a previous monthly crossover.
- The weekly Fisher chart hit a swing low of -2.85 at the end of December 2025, when BTC/USD was near $90,000.
- Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low near $57,000 on July 1.
What analyst Willy Woo says
Woo, a crypto market analyst, shared the readings in a thread on X on Friday, September 18. The Fisher Transform smooths an asset's price action into a readable trend-strength chart using a log-based transform. It is made up of two lines, the Fisher line and the trigger line, that move on a scale centered at zero, with the trigger line being the Fisher line delayed by one period.
On monthly charts, Woo says, sharp upward reversals where the two lines cross have marked the end of Bitcoin bear markets.
“BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record,” he wrote.
Woo cautioned that the signal is not guaranteed. Price could still consolidate and move lower, he noted, pointing to bull-market periods where the Fisher produced a bearish crossover and then a fresh bullish one later. He blames speculative traders, investors who react to short-term price moves, for the choppier behavior during uptrends. At bear-market bottoms those speculators are mostly absent, which he argues makes bottom signals more reliable.
“When price falls to a point where investors find value, buy-pressure fires back up but we are devoid of speculators. Price reverses more cleanly without the choppy fake outs seen in tops. Hence bottoms are easier to define. This is seen in many signals, also seen in the Fisher Transform here,” he added.
Weekly chart mirrors the 2022 bear market
A second bullish pattern is playing out on the weekly chart. After hitting -2.85 at the end of December 2025, the Fisher has formed a series of higher lows while Bitcoin's price has made lower lows. That mismatch is called a bullish divergence.
The same setup appeared in 2022, when a Fisher bullish divergence ran through the final six months of that year's bear market.
What is confirmed
- The Fisher Transform readings come from BTC/USD charts on TradingView, cited by Cointelegraph.
- Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low near $57,000 on July 1.
- Various onchain metrics, data recorded on Bitcoin's blockchain, have triggered bear-market reversal signals in recent months.
What is still unclear
- Whether the July 1 low was the true cycle bottom. Cointelegraph reports that doubts remain.
- Whether the latest crossover plays out like the previous three. Woo himself says price could still consolidate and continue lower.
- The article is inconsistent on timing: its summary calls the crossover an August event, while the body dates it to July.
- Woo noted last week that buyer interest at the lows was thinner than typical, with bid-side activity suggesting only a handful of large-volume investors were accumulating.
Why it matters
The crossover is only the fourth of its kind on the monthly chart in Bitcoin's history, and each of the previous three coincided with a bear-market bottom. That makes it a notable data point for anyone watching where Bitcoin sits in its price cycle. But it is one analyst's reading of chart data rather than a confirmed turning point, and the same report stresses that the July lows still lacked strong buyer confirmation.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.