Bitcoin reclaims 50-week moving average as analysts eye end of bear market
Bitcoin closes above a key price level
Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in more than 10 months. The cryptocurrency closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase, above the 50-week moving average of $78,788, according to TradingView data. The last time Bitcoin closed above this level was on Nov. 9, 2025.
This was also Bitcoin's highest weekly close in four months.
Key numbers and dates
- Weekly close: $81,159 on Coinbase
- 50-week moving average: $78,788
- Last close above the average: Nov. 9, 2025
- July lows: $57,000
What analysts are saying
Galaxy Research head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said that in four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively in.
Ben Simpson, founder of crypto research company Collective Shift, said that Bitcoin closing above the 50-week moving average would be "the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market." He noted that Bitcoin gained between 700% and 900% after breaking above the level in 2017, 2020 and 2023.
Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that the latest close added weight to the case that Bitcoin's recovery was underway. He said that in previous cycles, reclaiming this level has tended to happen after the major low was established and longer-term momentum had started to recover.
Cautions from analysts
Ryan Lee warned that one weekly close was not enough to confirm that Bitcoin had reached its cycle bottom. He said: "What matters now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week average and continue forming higher lows." He added that failed reclaims have happened in previous cycles, particularly when the macro environment was difficult.
Galaxy Research also cautioned that the signal is not infallible. Of 13 weekly crossings back above the 50-week moving average, two were followed by a lower low, both occurring in the 2021-2022 bear market.
Crypto trader Craig Cobb said the 50-week moving average was not the indicator he was watching. He instead looks at $83,000 as a key level, which he said would mean there is no lower high on the monthly chart. He also studies the three-month chart, looking for a transition from red quarterly candles to a green one, followed by a break above that green candle's high.
Why it matters
The market backdrop appears stronger than earlier in the year. Bitcoin has recovered significantly from its July lows of $57,000. Analysts noted that repeated liquidations have cleared out leverage that built up in the market, and there are signs of a return of institutional demand.
What is confirmed
Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159, above the 50-week moving average of $78,788. This was the first weekly close above that level since Nov. 9, 2025, and the highest weekly close in four months.
What is still unclear
Whether this close confirms the end of the bear market remains disputed. While some analysts point to historical patterns, others warn that one weekly close is not sufficient, and past reclaims have sometimes been followed by lower lows.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.