Bitcoin surges but prediction markets remain skeptical on long-term outlook

Bitcoin jumps 8.7% in strongest rally since March

Bitcoin, the largest digital currency, rose to $71,556 on Thursday, extending a sharp rally that began the day before. The 8.7% gain on Wednesday was the strongest one-day increase since March 4, pushing Bitcoin to its highest price since June 1.

The rally marks Bitcoin’s strongest performance in five months, with the price moving between $68,858 and $72,408. However, traders on prediction markets—platforms where people bet on future events—remain divided over whether the rally will continue.

Short-term bets shift but long-term outlook stays cautious

On Myriad, a prediction market run by Decrypt’s parent company, traders had previously favored a price drop to $55,000 by a 70% margin. After the recent rally, the odds shifted to nearly even, with 52% betting on a rise to $84,000 and 48% expecting a drop to $55,000.

Other prediction markets show similar caution. On Polymarket, traders gave Bitcoin only a 51% chance of reaching $75,000 by the end of the year. Kalshi, another prediction platform, set the odds of Bitcoin staying above $67,500 in August at 54%, while a separate Polymarket contract put the chance of Bitcoin hitting $75,000 this month at 47%.

What the numbers show

• Bitcoin price: $71,556 (up 3.26% on Thursday, 8.7% on Wednesday)
• Myriad odds: 52% chance of $84,000, 48% chance of $55,000
• Polymarket: 56% chance of $55,000 before year-end, 51% chance of $75,000
• Kalshi: 54% chance of staying above $67,500 in August

Why traders are still uncertain

While short-term prediction markets have adjusted to the recent rally, longer-term bets still favor a potential price drop. The difference suggests traders see the current surge as temporary rather than a sign of a sustained recovery.

Prediction markets allow users to bet on future events, turning crowd sentiment into live odds. These platforms have seen record trading volumes as more investors use them to hedge against price swings.

What is confirmed

• Bitcoin’s price rose 8.7% on Wednesday, its strongest daily gain since March.
• The price reached $71,556 on Thursday, the highest since June 1.
• Prediction market odds on Myriad shifted from favoring a drop to nearly even.
• Other prediction markets still show skepticism about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook.

What is still unclear

• Whether the rally will continue or reverse in the coming weeks.
• Why prediction markets remain cautious despite the recent price surge.
• How long-term bets will adjust if Bitcoin’s price keeps rising.

Sources

• Decrypt