Bitcoin Trades in Tight $80,000–$88,000 Range Ahead of US Midterms
Bitcoin drops below $80,000 after two hot inflation reports
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Oct. 15 after two days of stronger-than-expected inflation data, according to CryptoSlate. The report said September CPI accelerated to 3.7% from 3.4%, while producer prices rose 1.3% on the month — the largest increase since March 2022 and more than double the forecast in most surveys.
The article said analysts expect Bitcoin to keep moving between roughly $80,000 and $88,000 into the US midterms, with the Federal Reserve's next decision seen as a possible trigger for a break out of that range.
Key numbers to watch
- Range analysts describe: roughly $80,000 to $88,000 over the coming month.
- Support zone: $80,000 to $81,500, described as the average US spot ETF buyer's break-even level (the point where a buyer neither gains nor loses).
- Resistance level: near $88,000, the break-even for buyers from six to 12 months ago.
- Next floor if support fails: around $78,000, the average cost basis of active investors, per Glassnode.
- ETF outflows: a net $859 million across six sessions from Oct. 7 through Oct. 14, including $261.4 million on Oct. 14.
- Futures open interest: Bitcoin futures open interest fell 6% over the past week, while broader crypto open interest rose 15%, per CoinMarketCap research.
Glassnode data defines the range
Glassnode's Oct. 14 report put the aggregate cost basis (the average price paid) of Bitcoin held by US spot ETFs near $81,500. It said the six-to-12-month cohort's cost basis is near $88,000 and the True Market Mean is near $78,000, and it found the largest concentrated Binance spot bids around $80,000.
The article said Bitcoin dipped below the ETF cost basis on Oct. 8 and Oct. 13 and closed back above it both days, which points to recurring demand at that zone.
What Sygnum and Glassnode say about leverage
Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum, said the bank's base case is a range-bound move into the midterms and that options price roughly $80,000 to $87,000 over the coming month. He said thin spot volume makes price easier to move, but that funding has cooled and recent long liquidations have already cleared much of the excess leverage, making a self-feeding sell-off less likely unless $80,000 breaks cleanly.
Glassnode said modeled liquidation levels near the current price were down more than 20% in a week, and long-term holder realized losses were about 85% below their Aug. 12 peak. It shows liquidation clusters just below $80,000 and near $88,000.
Bitget and the Fed decision
Lewis Huang, analyst at Bitget, said a confirmed close below the support line could signal a breakdown from the current consolidation range and raise the risk of further near-term downside. He called Thursday's PPI a key near-term risk, saying a stronger reading would reinforce worries about additional tightening and could weigh on Bitcoin through higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and weaker risk appetite.
Köymen said what breaks the range is a catalyst. He said back-to-back hot prints, with core PPI up 0.7% on top of a firmer CPI, have made the Oct. 28 Fed meeting two-way. Futures priced hike odds near 50-50 immediately after CPI and now lean toward a hold, with estimates of roughly 29% to 34% across Oct. 15 reports. September PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, lands on Oct. 29.
The article noted the Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16, and its September projections put the end-2026 policy rate at 4.1% against 3.8% in June. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks in Bangkok on Oct. 16, his last appearance before the blackout, and Köymen expects his remarks to move markets little. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.087%, and the dollar retreated from an 18-month high.
Köymen said gasoline supplied more than half of the monthly CPI increase, and energy accounted for more than 80% of the rise in final-demand producer goods prices, with producer gasoline up 20.3%. He said a Fed that treats the energy surge as temporary has room to hold, while the 0.7% core PPI gain weighs against that reading.
Why the midterms matter
Köymen said the Nov. 3 elections add event risk, though historically other forces have driven Bitcoin's longer-term direction. A CryptoQuant analysis cited in the article showed Bitcoin gaining 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% over the 12 months from the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, and falling about 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election. The article said three cycles under different monetary regimes are too few to isolate an election effect.
Huang added that markets will watch whether President Donald Trump continues to signal supportive measures for crypto, and that absent further crypto-specific policy catalysts, inflation will remain the primary driver.
What is confirmed
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Oct. 15. September CPI came in at 3.7%, up from 3.4%, and producer prices rose 1.3% on the month. US spot ETFs saw a net $859 million of outflows from Oct. 7 through Oct. 14, including $261.4 million on Oct. 14. The Fed's next meeting is Oct. 28, and September PCE is due Oct. 29. The US midterms are Nov. 3.
What is still unclear
The article presents the $80,000–$88,000 range and the levels below it as estimates from analysts, options pricing and on-chain data, not confirmed outcomes. Whether the Fed holds or hikes on Oct. 28 was, as of the article, not decided.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
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