Bitcoin's 63% HODL wave masks aging, not fresh accumulation
Bitcoin's one-year HODL share hits 63.3%
Bitcoin's share of supply that has not moved for at least one year reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up 0.98 percentage points from 62.32% on Aug. 18, according to Maketo's HODL-wave data confirmed by Glassnode.
Key numbers
- The one-year HODL share rose from 62.32% to 63.3% over one month.
- The one-to-two-year band grew from 13.52% to 14.57%, a gain of 1.05 percentage points.
- The six-to-twelve-month band fell from 19.10% to 17.53%.
- Coins last moved within one month accounted for 7.03% of supply on Sept. 18, down from 7.30% a month earlier.
What HODL waves actually measure
HODL waves group Bitcoin's unspent transaction outputs into age bands based on when they last moved on-chain. An output that remains untouched advances into older bands as it crosses each age threshold. When it moves, the clock resets.
The recent shift looks like this: coins that were roughly one year old crossed the boundary into the one-to-two-year band, which is why that band grew while the six-to-twelve-month band shrank. This is a mechanical aging process, not necessarily a sign that new buyers are accumulating.
Why the signal is weaker than it appears
Age-band shifts do not reveal who controls the coins or why they are not moving. A transfer between wallets controlled by the same person or custodian can make an output look young even when ownership has not changed. Lost coins can sit in the oldest bands without representing any deliberate decision to hold.
Coinbase provided a practical example in November 2025 when it warned that an internal wallet migration would create large on-chain volumes unrelated to market conditions. That episode illustrates how hard it is to attribute on-chain movement to actual investor behavior.
What is confirmed
The on-chain data shows Bitcoin's supply has grown older and short-term movement has eased. The one-year share rose, the one-to-two-year band grew, and coins moved within a month declined.
What is still unclear
Whether the older supply represents deliberate accumulation or simply coins aging in place remains unresolved. Available-for-sale supply and liquid-supply tightening are not measured by HODL waves alone.
Why this matters
Rising HODL waves are often interpreted as a bullish signal suggesting investors are holding tight. But without corroboration from entity-adjusted balance changes, exchange flows, and spending behavior, the data only confirms that coins are getting older, not that new demand is entering the market.
What would clarify the picture
Analysts would need to see supporting evidence from exchange net flows and changes in entity-adjusted balances to distinguish between fresh accumulation and simple coin aging. Until those measures align, the one-year wave should be read as an aging signal rather than proof of a supply squeeze.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.