CFTC Crypto Rulemaking May Drag Into 2028 Election Cycle, Analyst Warns

TD Cowen warns CFTC's crypto framework may not finish before the 2028 election

Analysis from investment bank TD Cowen suggests that new federal rules aimed at regulating crypto trading platforms may not be completed before the 2028 U.S. presidential election cycle begins.

Jaret Seiberg, managing director at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — the U.S. agency that oversees futures and derivatives markets — is unlikely to finish its rulemaking until early 2028. If that timeline holds, the rules could be upended by a change in presidential administration, leaving crypto platforms without a clear regulatory path.

The CFTC released an advance notice of proposed rulemaking last week, outlining plans for a federal framework governing leveraged and margined crypto trading — in other words, crypto platforms that let users borrow money or use borrowed assets to trade digital assets at higher-than-normal risk.

What the proposed rules cover

• The CFTC proposal targets leveraged and margined crypto trading platforms but deliberately does not claim jurisdiction over spot crypto transactions (trading the asset directly without borrowing).
• Platforms operating under the new rules would be required to maintain proof-of-reserves audits, which are regular checks confirming that a platform holds the digital assets it claims to hold on behalf of customers.
• The rules would give the CFTC authority over state-licensed crypto platforms.

The CFTC stepped into this regulatory role after the U.S. Senate failed to pass broad crypto legislation — sometimes referred to as the Clarity Act — that would have given the CFTC sweeping authority over spot crypto trading. With that bill stalled, both the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have moved to regulate the crypto industry through their own rulemaking.

Timeline Seiberg outlined for the rulemaking process

Seiberg published his analysis in a research note on Monday, October 12. He described the CFTC's advance notice as a positive step but warned about the timeline.

According to Seiberg, the CFTC could release its formal proposal as early as late Q1 2027 or early Q2 2027. From there, the rulemaking could take until early 2028 to finalize.

Seiberg also warned that if the CFTC tries to speed up the process, the risk of legal challenges would increase. He noted that even if the agency follows careful procedures, judges could still block the rules on procedural grounds, and legal challenges could push the process past 2028.

Why this matters for the crypto industry

The rules the CFTC is working on would create a federal regulatory structure for crypto trading platforms, but they would lack the legal permanence that passed legislation would provide. Without a governing law, the current regulatory approach depends on whatever the agencies choose to implement — and that can change with a new presidential administration.

For crypto platforms that rely on leveraged trading to serve retail and institutional clients, the extended timeline and legal uncertainty could affect how they plan operations and compliance over the next two years.

Sources

• The Block — CFTC's new crypto framework could face 2028 election deadline, says TD Cowen (October 12, 2026)