CLARITY Act Odds Plummet to 16% as Democrats Reject GOP Proposal
Odds for CLARITY Act Passage Sink After Democratic Pushback
Odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 dropped sharply to 16% on Polymarket after key Senate Democrats said they were not convinced by Republicans' "final" proposal. The odds had risen to 35% the day before when a revised offer was presented.
The bill, which aims to set rules for how U.S. regulators oversee the crypto market, needs 60 votes to advance. A vote is scheduled for Tuesday, and failure could stall the legislation.
Key Democratic Concerns Focus on Ethics
- Senator Mark Warner said the revised ethics provision was not "near enough" to address problems.
- Senator Raphael Warnock stressed the need to fix corruption opportunities happening "in real time."
- Senator Ruben Gallego stated the ethics offer left "much to be desired" and is working on a counterproposal.
Senator Elizabeth Warren's staff argued that the proposed enforcement mechanism could be overridden by White House ethics officials.
Republicans Claim Deal, But Vote Outlook Uncertain
Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis said President Donald Trump accepted two significant ethics provisions, leaving "nothing to give" Democrats. However, not all Democrats oppose the bill; Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has urged colleagues to support advancing it.
Banking and Tribal Groups Voice Opposition
Eight banking trade groups said the revised text failed to close loopholes allowing stablecoin rewards, which function like deposit interest. They warned that a regulatory "circuit breaker" would only activate after substantial deposit flight from community banks.
The Indian Gaming Association urged tribes to vote against the bill, saying its decentralized finance changes did not address concerns about prediction markets. The group called for explicit language affirming that federal commodities law does not preempt tribal gaming laws.
Crypto Industry Urges Senators to Vote Yes
The Blockchain Association, a crypto industry group, urged every senator to vote yes. CEO Summer Mersinger said the industry made significant concessions to build bipartisan support and argued the bill would provide clear rules, protect consumers, and prevent innovation from moving overseas.
What the Sources Confirm and What Remains Unclear
Confirmed facts: The Polymarket odds fell to 16%, key Democrats have rejected the current proposal, a counterproposal has been sent, and the bill requires 60 votes. A vote is set for Tuesday.
Uncertainties: It is unclear if the counterproposal will satisfy Republicans and if the bill can secure enough votes to pass.
Why This Matters for U.S. Crypto Oversight
The CLARITY Act would determine how the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) divide oversight of the crypto market. Clear rules could provide stability for crypto businesses and investors, but delays may leave the market without defined regulations.
What Happens Next in the Senate
Democrats have submitted their counterproposal to Republicans. The Senate is set to vote on advancing the bill on Tuesday. If the procedural motion fails, the legislation may be stalled.