Coinbase Adds 15-Minute and Hourly Crypto Prediction Markets for U.S. Users

Coinbase opens short-term crypto price markets

Coinbase opened live crypto price markets to U.S. customers on Tuesday, letting traders take a position on whether a token finishes a 15-minute or hourly window above or below a set price.

The company kept the pitch simple. "Pick a coin, a timeframe, and up or down," it said in an announcement around midday. Chief executive Brian Armstrong posted about the launch at 4:36 p.m. ET, calling it a "New launch on our prediction markets."

These are prediction markets, meaning contracts that pay out based on whether an event happens. In this case, the event is whether a coin's price is above or below a chosen level when the window ends.

Ten coins and four timeframes

• Coinbase's crypto predictions page lists markets on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, SHIB, ZEC, NEAR and HYPE.
• The tokens are grouped under four headings: 15 min, Hourly, Pre-Market, and dated markets that run from a single afternoon out to the end of the year.
• A short-dated contract has one strike price and an expiry time and resolves yes or no. A 15-minute market settles and relists through the day, while a dated event market settles once.
• The longer-dated markets use price bands instead of a single level. "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026" is split into $5,000 brackets and has traded $77.2 million.
• Contracts can only be bought with settled dollars and USDC, according to the company's help pages.

Kalshi runs the markets behind the Coinbase app

"Prediction markets on Coinbase are operated by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange," Coinbase's help pages say. The contracts are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant and a National Futures Association member. They are available to U.S. residents in every state except Nevada.

Kalshi's own 15-minute crypto category covers BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, XRP, NEAR, HYPE, DOGE and BNB, plus a market on which asset leads over the window. Coinbase's list adds SHIB.

Fees and settlement source are not published

Coinbase does not publish a rate card for the product. A fee breakdown appears on the order confirmation screen before an order is placed, the help pages say. The Defiant says it has asked Coinbase for the fee schedule and for the settlement source used to resolve the short-dated markets.

The Kalshi partnership moves further into crypto

Coinbase launched prediction markets nationwide with Kalshi in January, starting with sports, politics, economics and weather. Tuesday's addition puts a repeating intraday contract inside the same app Coinbase customers already use to trade crypto.

Robinhood has been running a wider version of the same strategy. It routes event contracts to Kalshi, ForecastEX, OG.com and Rothera, the joint venture it owns with Susquehanna International Group, and took equity stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com in September. Robinhood traded 13.6 billion event contracts in the second quarter for $156 million in revenue, according to its results.

Coinbase shares closed lower on Tuesday

Coinbase shares closed at $185.74, down 1.32%. The stock traded at $186.44 after hours, up 0.38%, after Armstrong's post.

Bitcoin was at $85,641, down 0.2% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Ether was at $2,697 and solana at $121. The market data was retrieved on Oct. 6, 2026.

Which details are confirmed, and where they come from

The launch, the token list, the timeframes, the payment options and the state availability come from Coinbase's own announcement, Armstrong's post, the company's crypto predictions page and its help pages. Kalshi's role as the operator of the markets comes from Coinbase's help pages, while Kalshi's separate 15-minute listings come from Kalshi's website. The Robinhood figures come from Robinhood's quarterly results.

Sources

• The Defiant

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