Coinbase, Circle get 'outperform' rating from William Blair as crypto recovery expected
Analysts see gains continuing at Coinbase and Circle
William Blair analysts have given 'outperform' ratings to both Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) shares, saying the companies are positioned for a broader crypto recovery. Coinbase shares have risen 31% since July 14, while Circle shares are up 52% from bitcoin's July 1 low.
The analysts, led by Andrew W. Jeffrey, said estimates for both companies may be nearing a low point. They cut their 2026 EBITDA estimate for Coinbase by 11% to $810 million but left 2027 and 2028 estimates roughly unchanged.
Key numbers from the note
- Coinbase shares up 31% since July 14.
- Circle shares up 52% since bitcoin's low on July 1.
- Crypto-backed tokenized real-world assets market cap rose to $39 billion from $26 billion at the end of 2025.
- Retail derivatives generated about $200 million in annualized revenue in the first quarter.
- Prediction markets reached $100 million in the second quarter.
What the analysts say
They expect that regulatory rulemaking, including the SEC's recent tokenized-equity trading exemption, will improve sentiment and potentially support Coinbase into 2027. They also point to bitcoin's rally, growing use of crypto as lending collateral, and expansion of tokenized real-world assets as signs of a recovering market.
Coinbase's newer businesses are becoming more important. The analysts wrote, "Everything Exchange (we hate that term) signals diversification," adding that Coinbase has significantly diversified its offerings this year by adding institutional and retail derivatives and prediction markets.
They also argue that concerns about Coinbase's pricing and competitive position are overstated, noting that recent advanced-trader fee cuts were mainly aimed at markets like the U.K. rather than reflecting weakness in its core U.S. business.
Circle's growth depends on USDC
For Circle, the analysts expect USDC's market cap to follow bitcoin higher, possibly with a lag. They say the next leg higher in Circle's shares is likely to be driven by USDC growth. They also argue that a potential rival stablecoin poses little threat to USDC's position, and that Circle's long-term value lies in building a global stablecoin payments and transaction network rather than relying on reserve income.
Regulatory outlook
The Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act leaves the stablecoin regulatory status quo largely intact, with the SEC and CFTC likely to fill remaining gaps through rulemaking. Stablecoin rewards are no longer directly threatened by the stalled legislation, the analysts said.
What is confirmed
William Blair reiterated 'outperform' ratings on both COIN and CRCL shares. The analysts published their views in notes to clients.
What is still unclear
The analysts' expectations about regulatory rulemaking and market recovery are projections, not certainties. The impact of the SEC's tokenized-equity exemption and other regulatory actions remains to be seen.
Why it matters
Coinbase and Circle are major players in the crypto industry. A recovery in crypto market activity could affect their revenue and growth, according to the analysts.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.