Coinbase Q3 net income rises 66% to $719 million as prediction markets double

Coinbase earns $719 million in Q3 despite weaker trading

Coinbase reported third-quarter net income of $719 million, up 66% from $433 million in the same period last year, according to the exchange's earnings report released Thursday, October 30. Total revenue was $1.22 billion — roughly flat from the previous quarter but down 35% year over year.

Analysts said the company's growing prediction markets business (platforms where people bet on the outcome of real events) and derivatives helped offset weaker spot trading, which is the direct buying and selling of crypto.

Key numbers

• Net income: $719 million, up 66% year over year from $433 million.
• Total revenue: $1.22 billion, broadly flat quarter over quarter, down 35% year over year.
• Gain on crypto assets held for investment: $715 million, versus $424 million in the year-ago quarter.
• Spot trading volume: $135 billion, down 8% quarter over quarter.
• Prediction markets: more than $200 million in annualized revenue, doubled from roughly $100 million the prior quarter.
• Stablecoin revenue (income from crypto tokens pegged to the US dollar): $328 million, up 3% quarter over quarter.
• Shares closed down 1.07% at $160.59 on Nasdaq on Thursday.

What the earnings report shows

Spot trading volume fell 8% quarter over quarter to $135 billion, though the report says Coinbase continued to gain market share. Derivatives volume (trading in contracts tied to crypto prices) declined 7% quarter over quarter to roughly $986 billion, according to Bernstein analysts.

Stablecoin revenue came in at $328 million, up 3% quarter over quarter. That figure included $21 million attributable to USDC held in Coinbase's corporate balances.

Prediction markets double their revenue

Coinbase's prediction markets business surpassed $200 million in annualized revenue, doubling from roughly $100 million in the previous quarter.

"Prediction markets have been one of the fastest-growing products in Coinbase history, growing even through slower sports months driven by crypto contracts where we have a strong right to win," CEO Brian Armstrong said in a Thursday statement.

"Subscription and services revenue grew quarter over quarter and now represents nearly half of net revenue," said CFO Alesia Haas. "Prediction markets are adding another revenue stream and are less correlated to crypto volatility. These businesses make Coinbase more diversified and resilient across market cycles."

What analysts say

Bernstein analysts wrote in a Friday research note that growth in prediction markets and subscription and services revenue "helped offset the softer crypto trading activity." They estimated that prediction markets and derivatives accounted for about 25% of Coinbase's transaction revenue, equivalent to roughly 12% of total revenue. These are analyst estimates, not company-reported figures.

Bernstein also noted that overall industry derivatives volumes fell 11% quarter over quarter, a steeper drop than Coinbase's 7%.

Both Bernstein and William Blair reiterated their Outperform ratings on the stock after the results. Bernstein kept its $250 price target, while William Blair's valuation analysis suggested the stock could be worth roughly $240. William Blair also said stablecoins, particularly USDC, could play a critical role in cross-border payments and tokenized real-world asset settlement. These are analyst opinions, not guarantees.

What is confirmed and what is estimated

Confirmed: the revenue, net income, trading volume, prediction markets, and stablecoin figures come from Coinbase's own earnings report and executive statements. The 25%-of-transaction-revenue estimate, the industry volume comparison, and the price targets come from Bernstein and William Blair analysts and should be read as opinions and estimates.

Why this matters

The results show Coinbase earning more money in a quarter when trading revenue and overall revenue fell. Subscription and services revenue is now nearly half of net revenue, and prediction markets give the company an income stream that the CFO says is less tied to crypto price swings. For a company historically dependent on trading fees, that points to a more varied set of income sources across market cycles.

Sources

• The Block — Coinbase Q3 net income jumps 66% as prediction markets gain traction
• Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings report (10-Q)
• Coinbase investor statement