CryptoQuant says Bitcoin must clear $81,700 to confirm new bull market
Bitcoin faces 'a wall of resistance' at $81,700
CryptoQuant, a firm that studies data recorded on blockchain networks, says Bitcoin's recent rally has stalled and the cryptocurrency needs to clear $81,700 to confirm a new bull market, a period of rising prices.
In a report published Friday, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin rose 24% over two weeks before losing momentum. The price moved between $76,000 and $82,000 and was near $77,000 at the time of the report.
Key numbers from CryptoQuant
- Resistance between $77,100 and $80,200, where long-term holders — investors who keep bitcoin for long periods — sold as much as 539,000 BTC over 30 days this year.
- $81,700, bitcoin's 365-day moving average, or average price over the past year. A close above it has historically marked the start of bull markets.
- $83,600, based on CryptoQuant's 3x Metcalfe band, a model that estimates bitcoin's value from network activity.
- $88,700, the upper band of CryptoQuant's trader realized price model.
What CryptoQuant says about the resistance levels
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, said the trend is still constructive but a wall of resistance stands in the way.
Moreno described the $77,100 to $80,200 zone as the nearest and heaviest on-chain supply resistance above the current price. CryptoQuant says selling by long-term holders in that area this year created the supply wall.
Above that zone, bitcoin faces its 365-day moving average at around $81,700. Moreno said bull markets have historically started when the price closes above this average. A clear move above it could confirm a new bull market; otherwise, bitcoin could keep trading in a range.
The next resistance is $83,600, based on the 3x Metcalfe band, a model that uses network activity such as active addresses to estimate bitcoin's value. Moreno said these bands have marked important levels in previous cycles. The 3x band was at $138,000 when bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, and the 2x band was close to bitcoin's price when it first reached $100,000 in December 2024.
Moreno also sees possible selling pressure around $88,700, the upper level of the trader realized price model, which tracks the average price paid by active traders. He said the upper band marks where trader profit-taking has historically emerged.
Where support could appear
If bitcoin falls, Moreno sees support around $70,000, its 200-day moving average, or average price over the past 200 days. He also sees support between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders bought about 476,000 BTC this year.
Moreno said the overall picture remains bullish. Bitcoin needs to digest the overhead supply and break its valuation ceilings before a new leg up can develop.
Analysis, not confirmed market outcomes
The price levels in CryptoQuant's report are the firm's analysis, not confirmed market events. They come from models that track on-chain activity, such as long-term holder behavior, network use, and average trader prices.
Why these levels matter
Resistance is a price area where selling pressure may increase. Support is an area where buying interest may appear. CryptoQuant says bitcoin still looks bullish but needs to push past the overhead supply before the next upward move can develop.
