CryptoQuant warns bitcoin correction may be near as trader profits hit 21-month high
CryptoQuant sees warning signs for bitcoin
Bitcoin could face a near-term correction, according to CryptoQuant, as short-term traders' unrealized profit margin reached a 21-month high. The research firm said bitcoin is still in a bull market, but profit-taking and cooling demand suggest the rally may be losing momentum.
Unrealized profit is the gain a trader would make if they sold now. CryptoQuant's warning is based on on-chain data, not on a confirmed price drop.
Key numbers from the report
- Short-term traders' unrealized profit margin climbed to 33%, the highest since December 2024.
- Bitcoin holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on Sept. 22, the largest single day of 2026.
- Apparent spot demand shrank by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days.
- Futures demand growth slowed from 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29.
- CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index stands at 90 out of 100, described as 'extremely bullish.'
What CryptoQuant says about the market
Bitcoin's close above its 365-day moving average last week confirmed a new bull market, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. Bitcoin recently reached an eight-month high of $87,400.
Moreno said profit-taking at similar levels has historically encouraged traders to lock in gains. Altcoins, or cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin, also showed selling signs: the seven-day number of altcoin inflow transactions rose to 76,000, the highest since Oct. 17, 2025. The number of addresses depositing altcoins on exchanges reached 51,000, also the highest since October 2025. Moreno said moving coins to exchanges usually signals an intention to sell.
Uncertainty around the warning
CryptoQuant's warning is an analyst forecast, not a confirmed market event. A correction has not happened, and the report's historical patterns may not repeat. The report does not provide a timeline for a possible pullback.
Support levels if bitcoin pulls back
If bitcoin corrects, Moreno sees the 365-day moving average (average price over the past year) near $80,000 as the first support level. Further support is near the 200-day moving average at about $71,000 and the trader on-chain realized price around $67,000.
Moreno said a move toward those levels would be a 'healthy consolidation' in a young bull market rather than a reversal, as long as support holds.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
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