Fidelity warns Bitcoin may drop to a new low in November despite recent rally

Fidelity raises the possibility of another Bitcoin drop

A new report from asset manager Fidelity suggests the bear market for Bitcoin may not be over yet. While some analysts believe the lowest point already happened in July, the report warns the price could fall again to a new low in November or later.

Bitcoin has been rallying since mid-August, rising nearly 30% over 30 days to trade near $81,639. This comes after the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would more than double its government debt repurchases. Despite the rally and a record high hit in October last year, Fidelity is urging caution about declaring the bear market officially finished.

Why timing matters less than usual

Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, wrote that while the bottom could have occurred in July, Bitcoin's historical cycles are not reliable for timing the market. He noted that Bitcoin cycles have historically not been precisely four years long.

Kuiper also pointed to the upcoming vote on the crypto Clarity Act as a key factor investors should watch. The bill aims to provide regulatory certainty for the digital asset industry. President Donald Trump recently urged lawmakers to pass the legislation, calling the draft "very, very powerful" after meeting with crypto industry leaders.

Recent market movement

Throughout most of June and July, Bitcoin experienced muted volatility and traded below $65,000. The trend changed significantly in August following the Treasury's announcement, bringing attention back to what some call the "debasement trade"—investing in assets like Bitcoin that may hold value better than fiat currency during periods of currency inflation.

• Fidelity says Bitcoin's bear market may not be over yet
• The asset could hit a new low in November, despite a recent rally
• Bitcoin has risen nearly 30% in the past 30 days to trade near $81,639
• Chris Kuiper notes Bitcoin cycles are not reliable for timing the market
• Lawmakers are expected to vote on the crypto Clarity Act this month

What regulators are planning

Lawmakers will vote on the long-awaited Clarity Act this month. The bill has been a priority for the digital asset industry, which has called for clearer rules on how regulators treat Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other cryptocurrencies.

The industry hopes the legislation will support continued innovation in the U.S. digital asset ecosystem. President Trump has publicly backed the bill, saying it could provide greater regulatory certainty.

Why the Clarity Act matters for investors

Kuiper argued that the passage of the Clarity Act could influence where Bitcoin moves next. Clearer regulations often attract institutional investors who require legal certainty before committing capital. If the bill passes, it could stabilize the market environment. If it stalls, uncertainty may persist, potentially contributing to further price volatility.

Historical context

Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,080 in October last year. However, prior to the recent rally, it had been trading well below that level. The asset's behavior over the past few months has shown signs of recovering, but Fidelity cautions that past performance does not guarantee future results. The possibility of another drop remains on the table.

What is confirmed

Fidelity released a report stating Bitcoin may still drop to a new low. Bitcoin's price stood near $81,639 as of the article's publication. The U.S. Treasury announced doubled debt repurchases in August. Lawmakers are expected to vote on the Clarity Act this month.

What is still unclear

It is not yet confirmed whether Bitcoin has actually bottomed out or if it will drop further. The outcome of the Clarity Act vote remains unknown. It is also unclear how much impact the Treasury's debt repurchase announcement will have on Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory.

Why this matters for Bitcoin investors

The report highlights that even when prices rise sharply, the broader market cycle may not have shifted. Investors watching Bitcoin should consider both regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors. The potential for another drop means positions should be managed with caution.

What happens next

The next major milestone is the vote on the crypto Clarity Act, expected this month. Fidelity's report suggests that the outcome could influence Bitcoin's direction. Investors will likely watch how the market reacts to legislative progress or delays.

Sources

• Bitcoin Magazine