Friday jobs report triggers Bitcoin drop and Treasury yield rise, but Fed hike odds stay steady

Jobs data sparks market moves but odds stay steady

Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report was followed by a drop in Bitcoin and a rise in Treasury yields. Despite the market reaction, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark rate on Sept. 16 stayed roughly the same as a week earlier.

Key numbers

• Bitcoin fell from about $81,300 to $78,700 within a few hours.
• Two‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.42% from 4.36%.
• The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 58% chance of a 25‑basis‑point hike, unchanged from the previous week.

Fed rate‑hike odds

The market’s implied odds of a 25‑basis‑point increase to a 3.75%–4% range are derived from the CME FedWatch Tool. These odds match the level seen after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech a week earlier, indicating that traders are not pricing in a higher likelihood despite the jobs data.

What is confirmed

• Bitcoin’s price moved sharply lower after the jobs report.
• Two‑year Treasury yields rose.
• The Fed’s rate‑hike probability remains at about 58% according to the FedWatch Tool.
• The Fed’s next policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 16.

What remains uncertain

• Analysts have warned that raising rates during an oil‑price shock could be a mistake, but this is a view, not a confirmed market expectation.
• The outcome may change if the upcoming Sep. 11 inflation data comes in below expectations.

Why it matters

Bitcoin and Treasury markets reacted strongly, but the underlying Fed‑rate odds did not shift. This suggests the market’s response may be overstated, and investors will watch the Sep. 16 Fed decision and the Sep. 11 inflation report for clearer guidance.

Sources

• CoinDesk