Grayscale Says Fed Rate Hike Is Unlikely to Hurt Bitcoin
Grayscale Sees Limited Impact on Bitcoin From Fed's Rate Rise
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023. Bitcoin's price moved sharply at first but then settled, ending about 1% higher over 24 hours.
Asset manager Grayscale's crypto research team says the hike is unlikely to bother bitcoin. The firm's head of research, Zach Pandl, called it a "mid-cycle adjustment" and said the one or two rate hikes expected for 2026 probably won't lead to much change in how investors allocate capital.
Key Points
- The Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023.
- Bitcoin briefly swung in price, then settled about 1% higher over 24 hours.
- Grayscale's Zach Pandl says the move is a mid-cycle adjustment, not a change in the long-term trend.
- He compared the current situation to 1997, when a one-off Fed hike coincided with the Nasdaq continuing to rise.
- Bitcoin's price recently stood near $76,581, up 18% in the past 30 days.
What Grayscale Says
Pandl wrote in a Thursday note: "We believe yesterday’s move was a mid-cycle adjustment, not a cyclical change." He added, "We doubt the one or two rate hikes expected for 2026 will lead to much change in capital allocation."
In the past, bitcoin has often done well when interest rates are low and has slid when the Fed raises borrowing costs. Low rates mean more liquidity for investors to take risks and buy assets like bitcoin.
Pandl noted that when the Fed aggressively raised rates in 2022 to fight inflation, it "probably weighed on the price of bitcoin" because higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that don't pay interest. But this time, he argues, the situation feels more like 1997, when the Fed did a single hike and the Nasdaq kept climbing.
What Is Confirmed
The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Bitcoin's price briefly moved erratically after the announcement, then stabilized, ending about 1% higher over a 24-hour period. Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, published a note expressing his view that the hike is a mid-cycle adjustment and unlikely to significantly affect crypto markets.
What Is Still Unclear
The note is an opinion from Grayscale, not a guarantee of future price movements. Bitcoin's past reaction to rate changes has not been consistent, and the actual impact of the Fed's decision remains to be seen. Pandl's comparison to 1997 is an analogy, not a prediction.
Why It Matters
Interest rates affect how much money investors have available for riskier assets like bitcoin. If Grayscale is right that this hike is a mid-cycle adjustment, the impact on bitcoin may be limited. But if the Fed continues to raise rates, that could change the picture.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.