Kalshi Investigates Suspicious Bets Placed Before Trump's Press Secretary Announcement
Three Trades Preceded Public Announcement
Prediction market exchange Kalshi has opened an investigation into suspicious bets on President Donald Trump's choice of Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary, The Wall Street Journal reported on October 9.
The Journal identified three wagers placed before the news became public. A roughly $19 bet was made around 10:43 p.m. ET on Thursday. Two more wagers, about $74 and $80, were placed around 1:41 p.m. ET on Friday. Reports of Zacharia's selection emerged around 2 p.m. Friday.
According to the newspaper, each of those contracts carried expected gross payouts of roughly $1,900 to $4,000.
Key Numbers
- Three suspicious trades totaling about $173
- Expected gross payouts of $1,900 to $4,000 per contract
- Zacharia was trading at about 1% implied probability before the announcement
- The contract settled at $1 per contract (Yes) at 4:35 p.m. ET Friday
What the WSJ Reports
The Wall Street Journal is the source for details about the timing and size of the suspicious wagers. A Kalshi spokeswoman confirmed the company is probing trades that predicted Zacharia's selection but declined to provide additional comment.
Settlement Does Not Guarantee Withdrawals
The contract has now settled, meaning the outcome is officially recorded as Yes. However, settlement does not automatically mean affected traders can withdraw their funds.
Kalshi's rulebook contains a separation between settlement and access to funds. Under Rule 6.4, the exchange or its clearinghouse may suspend or deny withdrawal requests when funds are tied to a pending investigation. The exchange's published insider-trading policy also states that accounts flagged for potential insider trading are frozen until an investigation is completed.
Whether accounts connected to this particular investigation face those restrictions remains unclear.
A Broader Pattern of Scrutiny
This inquiry follows earlier regulatory attention toward political betting on the platform. In June, The Defiant reported that the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission were investigating George Santos's Kalshi trades.
In February, the CFTC issued an enforcement advisory describing prior disciplinary cases on Kalshi, including one involving a political candidate who traded on his own candidacy and another involving a YouTube editor who traded contracts tied to videos. The CFTC stated that exchanges have an independent duty to maintain audit trails, conduct surveillance, and enforce trading rules, while the agency retains authority to investigate and prosecute violations.
Why This Matters for Prediction Market Users
The case highlights the ongoing tension between prediction markets and insider trading concerns. Platforms that allow betting on political events face questions about how to handle trades placed just before publicly announced outcomes. Traders using prediction markets should be aware that even after a contract settles, regulatory investigations can delay or block access to winnings.
What Happens Next
Kalshi has not released a timeline for the investigation. No disciplinary proceedings have been announced, and no findings have been published. The exchange said an investigation does not constitute a finding that any trader used inside information.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.