Kalshi Investigates Suspicious Bets That Called Trump's Press Secretary Pick Before Announcement

Kalshi probes bets that called Zacharia's press secretary pick hours early

Prediction market Kalshi is investigating three small wagers that correctly predicted President Donald Trump would name Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary, placed before the announcement was made public, according to The Wall Street Journal. The bets, totaling about $173, stand to pay out roughly $9,600 combined.

A prediction market is a platform where users can bet on the outcome of real-world events, similar to sports betting but covering topics like politics and economics. Kalshi is one of the largest U.S.-based prediction markets and is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The numbers behind the well-timed bets

• A $19 bet was placed around 10:42 p.m. ET on Thursday and is slated to pay out $1,896 once the market closes.
• Two additional bets, for about $74 and $80, were placed around 1:41 p.m. ET on Friday and are expected to pay out $3,689 and $4,023 respectively.
• Zacharia traded at about 1% odds on Kalshi in the days before the reports, meaning the market strongly disfavored her selection.
• The New York Times and other outlets began reporting her selection around 2 p.m. ET on Friday.

Trump confirmed the appointment

Trump named Zacharia in a post on Truth Social on Friday afternoon. She is a senior communications adviser at Trump Media & Technology Group, the company that operates Truth Social, and previously served as a spokesperson and deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of Homeland Security. Trump wrote: "I am confident that Katie will deliver strong results for our Country."

Another insider-trading probe on a prediction market

This investigation follows several prior cases of suspected insider trading on Kalshi. In August, former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez agreed to repay $107,539 in profits and pay a $65,000 civil penalty to settle CFTC charges. Perez had traded Kalshi markets about whether specific words would appear in Trump's speeches, after reading Trump's prepared remarks. The CFTC credited Kalshi with assisting in the case.

Kalshi also permanently banned former Rep. George Santos on August 31 over trades tied to his attendance at a State of the Union address and fined him just over $71,000. Santos had separately agreed in July to pay $35,000 to settle with the CFTC over the same bet, without admitting or denying the agency's findings.

In June, Kalshi began requiring traders to disclose their employers before trading in markets it considers at heightened risk of insider trading or manipulation. The company said at the time it had made more than 20 law enforcement referrals and opened more than 150 investigations in the first quarter of the year.

Questions the investigation must still answer

A Kalshi spokesperson confirmed the probe to The Wall Street Journal and declined to comment further. The White House did not return the Journal's request for comment, and the CFTC did not respond before the story was published.

Trades on Kalshi are anonymous to the public, but the company keeps records of its traders' identities. The Journal also reported that the White House previously sent staff a memo warning them against using nonpublic information for private gain, following a series of well-timed bets related to the Iran war.

Why repeated prediction market probes matter

As prediction markets grow in popularity for trading on real-world events including political appointments, questions are increasing about who has access to nonpublic information and whether existing rules are strong enough to prevent exploitation. In May, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer opened a separate congressional probe into insider trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, requesting documents on how the platforms verify identities and detect unusual trading.

Sources

• The Block