Kalshi secures exclusive US Open prediction market deal amid legal challenges
Kalshi locks in US Open prediction market partnership
Prediction market platform Kalshi has signed an exclusive deal with the U.S. Tennis Association (USTA) to become the sole prediction market partner for the 2026 US Open, according to a Front Office Sports report. The agreement, finalized just before the tournament’s main draw began on August 30, bars rival platforms from advertising at the event or during ESPN’s broadcasts.
A prediction market—where users trade contracts based on the outcome of real-world events—has become increasingly popular in sports. Kalshi, regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has faced recent legal challenges from state regulators over whether its sports-related contracts should be treated as gambling.
The deal marks a push by the USTA, under new CEO Craig Tiley, to integrate prediction markets into the tournament. Financial terms were not disclosed, and Kalshi was not listed among the US Open’s official partners as of August 30.
Key details of the deal
- Exclusivity clause: Competitors like Polymarket are blocked from advertising at the US Open venue or on ESPN’s tournament coverage.
- Timing: The agreement was finalized after qualifying rounds ended, taking effect immediately for the 2026 event.
- Legal context: Kalshi is embroiled in disputes with states like Nevada over whether its sports contracts fall under federal commodities law or state gambling regulations.
- Volume growth: Kalshi handled $33.7 billion in trading volume in August 2026, with sports contracts driving much of the activity.
Ongoing legal battles
Kalshi’s expansion into sports comes as it faces conflicting court rulings over its operations. On August 28, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Nevada’s gaming laws could apply to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts, contradicting an earlier decision by the Third Circuit that supported the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. The split creates uncertainty over whether states can regulate such markets.
The company has not commented on the US Open deal or the legal setback. The USTA and ESPN also did not respond to requests for confirmation.
Why sports partnerships matter for prediction markets
Prediction platforms are increasingly teaming up with major sports leagues and teams. Kalshi and rival Polymarket—which operates on blockchain technology—have struck deals with the NHL, MLB, and individual teams like the New York Mets. These partnerships help drive user engagement and trading volume, with the three largest platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US) combining for over $41 billion in August 2026 trades.
Sports-related contracts remain the dominant category for Kalshi, though newer "exotics" markets (combinations of multiple events) are gaining traction.
What’s next
The US Open deal runs through the 2026 tournament, which concludes on September 13. Kalshi’s legal fights with state regulators, however, are likely to continue, with potential implications for how prediction markets operate across the U.S.
If the CFTC’s jurisdiction is upheld, Kalshi could expand its sports offerings without state-level restrictions. A loss could force the platform to comply with varying state gambling laws, complicating its growth.
