Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin's bear market is over, but expects 3x to 5x, not 10x
Bitcoin Magazine interviews CryptoQuant founder on the current cycle
Bitcoin Magazine published a video interview on October 5, 2026, with Ki Young Ju, the founder of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. In it, he says he believes Bitcoin's bear market ended this summer and that he expects Bitcoin to rise three to five times from its lows rather than ten times.
The video is titled with the line "Bull Run Has Started," attributing that view to CryptoQuant. Ju's main argument is that large institutional flows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs, funds that let investors hold Bitcoin through a brokerage account) and custody arrangements now absorb both buying and selling, which he says reduces how sharply the market swings.
The source page is a summary and chapter list. It does not include a full transcript, and it does not state current prices, the exact low Ju is measuring from, or a time frame for his 3x to 5x estimate.
The main points raised in the interview
- Ju expects a 3x to 5x gain from Bitcoin's lows, and rules out another 10x move.
- His reason: institutional ETF and custody flows reduce volatility.
- He says the bear market ended this summer.
- He describes nearly $700 billion in realized cap and says trillions could come in the next cycle. Both are his views, not reported figures.
- He argues the signals he watches are behavioural, such as who is buying, rather than specific price levels.
What Ju covers chapter by chapter
The page lists the video's chapters, which give a clearer picture of his argument than the short summary alone:
- Fresh capital coming in and an end to what he calls whale selling.
- Why he thinks the bear market is over, with a 3x to 5x range rather than a 10x move.
- A metric he refers to as the PNL index, and his view that ETFs are the liquidity channel for this cycle.
- An ETF cost basis in the low-to-mid $80,000s, which he frames as the institutional line between a bull and bear market.
- How institutional ownership has changed on-chain analysis, because custodial wallets and accumulation wallets no longer map cleanly to individual holders.
- Roughly $700 billion in realized cap, with trillions possible in the next cycle.
- Reading Coinbase wallet flows to see who is buying.
- Why he focuses on behaviour rather than price levels.
- Whether Bitcoin's widely discussed four-year cycle still applies.
- What Bitcoin miner costs imply about price.
What is confirmed
The following points are supported directly by the source page: the interview exists, was published by Bitcoin Magazine on October 5, 2026, and is credited to writer Patrick Green. The page states Ju's expectation of a 3x to 5x gain from the lows, his view that the bear market ended this summer, and his reasoning that institutional ETF and custody flows dampen volatility. The chapter list above is quoted in substance from the page.
On-chain data refers to information recorded directly on the Bitcoin blockchain, such as wallet movements. Ju says he reads this data to judge who is buying and selling.
What is still unclear
The page does not define the PNL index or realized cap, so their exact meaning as Ju uses them cannot be confirmed from this source. It also gives no methodology, no on-chain figures, and no independent verification of the claimed $700 billion.
His 3x to 5x range is an estimate from one analyst, not a measured fact. Bitcoin Magazine's own video listing shows that other guests published around the same date have said different things about Bitcoin, including a $132,000 target for 2027 from Lance Vitanza of TD Cowen and a VanEck guest's view that Bitcoin's path runs through gold. These are separate published opinions, and the page does not present them as resolved or settled.
Why the institutional angle matters
The practical part of Ju's argument is about how Bitcoin markets are read. He says ETFs and custody have pulled enough money in and out of the market to soften price swings, and that his usual on-chain tools now produce less signal because coins move between exchange, custodial, and accumulation wallets instead of sitting with individual holders. That would change how any analyst, not only Ju, reads the same data going forward. Whether it holds up over time is not something the source material tests.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.