Mizuho lowers Circle price target, sees AI agents as revenue risk for USDC
Mizuho cuts Circle price target over AI risk
Mizuho has lowered its price target for Circle Internet Group, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, to $43 from $45. The bank kept an Underperform rating on the stock and warned that AI personal assistants could reduce Circle's medium-term revenue.
The brokerage estimates that wider use of AI agents may cut USDC's market value by as much as $9 billion. That would put Circle's reserve revenue at risk of falling 10% to 20% over the medium term.
Key numbers from the report
- Circle price target cut to $43, down from $45
- Reserve revenue risk of 10-20% under wider AI adoption
- USDC market cap could shrink by $4 billion to $9 billion
- Projected 2027 average USDC in circulation lowered to $101 billion, from $108 billion
- Projected reserve revenue cut to $4.1 billion, from $4.3 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA forecast reduced to $603 million, from $635 million
- Circle stock closed down 7% at $79.84 on Monday
How AI agents could change where USDC is held
Mizuho's research suggests that AI personal assistants may recommend moving money out of USDC and into higher-yielding fiat options, such as savings accounts offered by banks like SoFi. Those accounts carry FDIC insurance, which protects depositors if a bank fails.
USDC is a stablecoin, a type of digital currency designed to stay close to $1. Circle earns money by investing the reserves backing USDC.
Even when people insist on keeping their money in crypto, the report said AI tools seem to prefer other platforms over holding USDC directly on Circle's own platform. As of the second quarter of this year, only about 17% of USDC was held on Circle, where holders earned no yield. Around 30% sat on Coinbase, and the remaining 53% was spread across other platforms.
Under a faster AI adoption scenario, Mizuho projected about $7 billion could move into fiat products and another $2 billion into higher-yielding stablecoins. That would cut USDC's market cap by up to $9 billion and reduce Circle's reserve revenue by 18%.
Circle's recent performance
Circle reported roughly $1.4 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026, with about 7 cents of net profit for every dollar earned. During that period, USDC settled more than $36 trillion in on-chain transaction volume, which is trade activity recorded directly on a blockchain. USDC accounted for about 77% of all global stablecoin transaction volume by June, up from 60% a year earlier, according to Circle.
What remains unclear
Mizuho's warnings are based on its own simulations and analyst judgments about how AI agents might behave. The report does not prove that these changes have already happened at scale. Circle has not commented publicly on the Mizuho analysis.
Why this matters
The analysis highlights how payments technology and AI tools may reshape which digital dollars people hold and where. If users shift toward yield-bearing fiat products or other platforms, Circle's income from reserves could fall even if overall stablecoin use keeps growing.
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.