Most Americans oppose betting on election results, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Survey finds broad opposition to election betting
Most US adults oppose using prediction markets to bet on election results, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Prediction markets are platforms where people place real-money bets on the outcome of future events. Two of the largest, Polymarket and Kalshi, let users bet on US elections, government policy decisions and sporting events.
The poll's release comes as the industry faces a growing legal fight over who has the authority to regulate these platforms — the federal government or individual states.
What the poll numbers show
- 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans said they opposed using prediction markets to bet on election results.
- 43% of respondents opposed betting on professional sports through these markets, while 29% supported it.
- The survey covered 4,506 adults nationwide and was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5.
A regulatory fight moves through the courts
The spread of prediction market betting has produced a series of lawsuits involving state and federal agencies over who should regulate the industry. President Donald Trump's administration is pursuing federal rules for the sector through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal derivatives regulator. States are pushing back against that approach.
On Oct. 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 US states and the District of Columbia had filed an amicus brief — a court filing by parties that are not directly part of a case but have an interest in its outcome. In the brief, the states argued that the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction markets had created a "national turf war" that could not be settled without a ruling from the Supreme Court.
What is clear and what is not
The poll results, the lawsuits and the states' court filing are all documented facts. However, the Cointelegraph report says only that "many expect" the dispute to reach the Supreme Court. Whether the court will take up the case remains unconfirmed, as does the future of federal regulation of prediction markets.
Why the poll and the legal dispute matter together
The poll suggests the industry's growth is running ahead of public comfort, at least when it comes to betting on elections. At the same time, the legal question of who regulates these markets — Washington or the states — remains unresolved, leaving platforms and users in a period of uncertainty while the courts decide.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.