Old Bitcoin coins sit idle as analysts spot early signs of a new rally

Long-term holders stop spending, analysts say the market may be turning

Bitcoin is showing signs that the next market rally could be starting, according to new onchain analysis. The data tracks how many coins have been moved on the blockchain in the last 18 months or more.

That share has begun to fall, meaning fewer old coins are being sold or spent. CryptoQuant, an onchain analytics platform, says this pattern has appeared before the start of past Bitcoin bull markets.

Key numbers behind the shift

• The portion of Bitcoin's realized cap held by coins inactive for 18 months or longer fell from 26.98% on Sept. 16 to 26.59%.


• Sept. 16 marked the highest share for this group since mid-November 2024.


• Cryptocoin coins dormant for at least five years averaged 34,000 BTC per month in 2026 — half the 2024 pace.


• That same five-year group moved 67,000 BTC a month in 2024 and 47,000 in 2025.

What CryptoQuant's analysis says

CryptoQuant looked at a metric called realized cap, which values all Bitcoin at the price where each coin last moved onchain. It found that when the share held by investors with coins for over 18 months rises and then starts to drop, a strong rally has historically followed.

The company wrote in a blog post that the pattern has been consistent across previous cycles. It added that UTXO age bands — a way of grouping coins by how long they have been untouched — are now pointing toward the early part of a new bullish phase.

One caveat stands out: the drop in spending by long-term investors is still small. CryptoQuant says the market has entered a bullish cycle but remains at the start of it.

Investors remain mostly in profit despite lower prices

Bitcoin's price has come off its all-time high of $126,200. Even so, most long-term holder groups still hold coins at a profit. The only exception is the 18-month-to-two-year cohort, whose cost basis sits at $93,193.

Because prices have stayed above the cost basis of the two-to-three-year group, CryptoQuant describes 2026 as the first bear market where that has happened. It also calls this the shallowest downturn on record.

Galaxy Digital: old coins are selling far less

Galaxy Digital said in a recent research report that coins untouched for five years or more helped create a supply glut that blocked Bitcoin's rise above $126,200. Since October 2024, that group has moved 1.11 million BTC — the largest old-coin distribution in any cycle.

But much of that supply has been absorbed by spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), devices that let investors buy Bitcoin through a standard stock account, and digital asset treasury companies, which are firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. With monthly selling now down to 34,000 BTC, Galaxy sees fresh support for a longer-term uptrend.

What is still unclear

The signal is early and modest, so it is not a guarantee of higher prices. The decline in long-term holder activity could continue, stall, or reverse. Neither CryptoQuant nor Galaxy Digital made a price target.

Sources

• Cointelegraph


• CryptoQuant — Realized cap by UTXO age bands


• CryptoQuant blog post on the pre-rally pattern


• Galaxy Digital report — Why now: Bitcoin buy and hold 2026

For informational purposes only. This article does not constitute investment advice.