Prediction market interest drops 83% after World Cup peak as Kalshi gains lead

Search interest in prediction markets plunges after World Cup

Global search interest in prediction markets has fallen sharply since the 2026 World Cup ended. Google Trends data shows searches for the term "prediction market" dropped 83% from their peak in June. Prediction markets are platforms where people bet on the outcome of real-world events, like elections or sports.

The highest search interest occurred during the World Cup, with the peak on the day of the final match. Since then, interest has returned to levels seen before the tournament began. However, trading activity on these platforms tells a different story about which companies are leading the market.

Key numbers from the prediction market slowdown

• Google Trends search interest for "prediction market" fell from 100 in June to 17 in mid-August, an 83% drop.
• Total prediction market volume across all platforms reached a record $17.27 billion in July but is pacing 17% lower in August.
• Kalshi’s monthly trading volume is about 15% below its July record, while Polymarket’s volume has halved since June.
• Kalshi now handles 77.4% of the category’s trading volume, compared to Polymarket’s 16.8%.
• Total value locked (TVL) in onchain prediction markets has fallen 30% since April, even as trading volume rose.

Kalshi widens lead over Polymarket

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest prediction market platforms. While both saw a surge in activity during the World Cup, their performance has diverged since then.

Kalshi’s trading volume in July was $12.37 billion, its highest month on record. In August, it is on track for about $10.45 billion. Polymarket, on the other hand, saw its volume drop from $4.29 billion in June to $2.14 billion so far in August. This means Kalshi now handles nearly five times more trading volume than Polymarket.

Despite the gap in trading volume, Polymarket still leads in social media mindshare. Data from analytics firm Moni shows Polymarket holds 21.57% of prediction market mindshare, compared to Kalshi’s 20.8%. However, Kalshi’s trading volume growth suggests it is attracting more actual trading activity.

What is confirmed about the prediction market slowdown

• Google Trends data confirms search interest for "prediction market" fell 83% from its June peak to mid-August.
• Total prediction market trading volume reached a record $17.27 billion in July but is pacing lower in August.
• Kalshi’s trading volume remains strong, while Polymarket’s has declined sharply since June.
• Kalshi now accounts for 77.4% of the category’s trading volume, compared to Polymarket’s 16.8%.
• Total value locked (TVL) in onchain prediction markets has fallen 30% since April.

What is still unclear

• The sources do not explain why Kalshi’s trading volume has remained stronger than Polymarket’s.
• It is unclear whether the decline in search interest will lead to a long-term drop in trading activity.
• The sources do not provide a clear reason for the 30% drop in TVL despite rising trading volume earlier this year.

Why this matters for prediction market users

The shift in trading volume suggests Kalshi is becoming the dominant platform for prediction market activity. Users may see more liquidity and trading options on Kalshi compared to Polymarket. However, the overall decline in search interest and TVL could indicate waning public enthusiasm for prediction markets after the World Cup.

A study cited in the sources found that 84% of Polymarket traders were losing money, with only 2% ever making more than $1,000 in profit. This suggests that while prediction markets attract attention during major events, they may not be profitable for most users.

Sources

• The Defiant
• Google Trends
• DeFiLlama