Robinhood CEO Says Crypto Will Outpace Sports at Prediction Markets

Robinhood CEO says crypto is becoming the core of prediction markets

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told Jim Cramer on Mad Money that crypto contracts already account for a disproportionate share of Robinhood's prediction markets business, and he expects sports to become the minority within a few years. Tenev described sports contracts as a way to bring in liquidity and users, but said the industry is expanding well beyond them.

Tenev also highlighted a telling example: Robinhood has a prediction market on the Clarity Act, the crypto legislation that failed cloture in the Senate last week. Prediction market odds on Polymarket dropped from 35% to 11% ahead of the vote, calling the outcome before the Senate itself did.

Key numbers behind the prediction markets boom

• Robinhood's event-contract revenue jumped more than tenfold year over year to $156 million in the second quarter, making it the company's fastest-growing business line.
• Contracts were traded 4.7 billion times in August, roughly 15 times the volume from the same month a year earlier.
• Over the same period, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue declined.

How Robinhood built its prediction markets platform

Robinhood's prediction markets business operates on three legs. It first launched on top of Kalshi, then added Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed joint venture with Susquehanna. This month, Robinhood took minority stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-market spinoff OG.com, adding a third partner to help clear and settle trades.

Sports contracts face legal challenges; crypto contracts do not

Sports contracts remain the legally contested category. The Ninth Circuit ruled last month that Nevada can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, splitting with the Third Circuit. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to settle the dispute. States argue that sports contracts are simply gambling by another name. Crypto contracts do not carry that legal fight, which means shifting the business mix toward crypto moves Robinhood's fastest-growing segment onto firmer legal ground.

Crypto excitement returns as Bitcoin hits an eight-month high

Beyond prediction markets, the broader crypto market showed signs of renewed energy. Bitcoin reached an eight-month high near $86,000, with roughly $750 million in short positions liquidated above $82,000 and approximately $2 billion in new leverage added since the breakout. Bitcoin traded above $86,500, up about 14% over the period shown, while Ethereum held near $2,740 and Solana around $117.

Bitcoin ETFs drew significant attention, with a reported $999 million in inflows, the largest total since October 2026. On Friday alone, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $433 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw $143 million and Solana ETFs saw $48 million.

Why this matters for the industry

Tenev noted that the recent bear market and summer period of low volatility gave users little to bet on. In a rising market, users can make predictions on Bitcoin price targets, track how quickly altcoins reach all-time highs, and hedge positions through directional bets on price action. The return of excitement in crypto is driving more market activity across multiple categories, including prediction markets.

Other notable developments from the session

• The first tokenized stock venues could file their regulatory notices as early as next quarter, SEC Crypto Task Force chief counsel Taylor Lindman told Crypto In America.
• X shared a promo video for its new Cashtag program, which would let users trade crypto tokens and stocks directly from the platform's home page through a centralized exchange connection.
• X sued two UK men in London's High Court, alleging a six-account Bitcoin bot network withdrew at least £207,384 from its now-closed creator payout program.
• Fairshake plans to spend $30 million against Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio's Senate race, days after the Clarity Act failed to advance.
• Attackers are actively exploiting a vulnerability in the DarkSword iOS chain to steal seed phrases and private keys through malicious Safari pages, with security researchers urging users to update to iOS 26.3 or later.
• Strategy purchased 950 BTC for $75.7 million at an average price of $79,670, lifting its total holdings to 846,000 BTC. Bitmine added 27,562 ETH, bringing its holdings to 5.98 million, more than 4.9% of total supply.
• Circle minted $1.5 billion in USDC on Solana on Monday.

What is confirmed and what remains unclear

Confirmed: Robinhood's event-contract revenue and trading volumes have grown significantly; the legal disputes over sports contracts are ongoing; Bitcoin reached an eight-month high with large liquidations; and prediction markets on the Clarity Act moved sharply before the Senate vote. Unclear: whether the shift toward crypto contracts will definitively resolve the legal challenges facing sports contracts, and whether the current market momentum will sustain its pace.

Sources

• Decrypt - Morning Minute by Tyler Warner

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