Russia’s Sberbank predicts $46 billion in crypto trading under new laws starting September 1

Russia’s largest bank expects $46 billion in crypto trading after new rules begin

Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, predicts the country’s regulated crypto exchanges could handle up to 4 trillion rubles (about $46.4 billion) in trading volume during their first year under new legislation. The law, signed by President Vladimir Putin earlier in August, takes effect on September 1, 2026.

The forecast comes from Anatoly Popov, Sberbank’s deputy chairman, who also suggested trading volume could grow to roughly 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.1 billion) by 2029. The bank has been preparing for the regulatory shift, including plans to offer loans backed by cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether, and USDT—once approved by Russia’s central bank.

Russia’s new rules allow regulated crypto trading but maintain a ban on using digital assets for domestic payments. Cross-border crypto transactions, however, remain permitted for international trade—a move Russia has used since 2024 to work around Western sanctions.

Key numbers from Sberbank’s forecast

• $46.4 billion (4 trillion rubles): Expected trading volume on regulated exchanges in the first year after September 1, 2026.
• $87.1 billion (7.5 trillion rubles): Projected trading volume by 2029.
• 300,000 rubles (~$3,700): Annual purchase limit for retail investors buying the most liquid cryptocurrencies per intermediary.
• No limits for qualified investors: Accredited traders face no restrictions on crypto purchases.
• March 1, 2027: Deadline for existing crypto exchanges to comply with the new rules.

What the new Russian crypto law allows

The legislation, which begins rolling out on September 1, creates a framework for legal crypto trading but keeps strict controls in place:

• Regulated exchanges: Trading must occur on approved platforms, with Sberbank among those preparing to enter the market.
• Retail limits: Ordinary investors can buy only the most liquid cryptocurrencies, capped at ~$3,700 per year per exchange.
• Qualified investor freedom: Accredited traders (meeting wealth or experience criteria) face no purchase limits.
• No domestic payments: Cryptocurrencies cannot be used to buy goods or services within Russia.
• Cross-border use permitted: Businesses and individuals can use crypto for international trade, a workaround for sanctions.
• Grace period: Existing exchanges have until March 1, 2027, to adapt to the new rules.

Sberbank’s crypto expansion plans

The state-backed bank has been building its crypto services ahead of the new law:

• Crypto-backed loans: Plans to offer loans secured by bitcoin, ether, and USDT (a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar), pending central bank approval.
• Digital asset wallet: Aims to launch a crypto wallet within its Sber and Sber Investments apps by December 2026, alongside a digital asset storage service.
• Existing products: Already provides qualified investors with structured bonds and digital assets tied to bitcoin and ether since 2025.

Popov stated the bank will adapt its offerings as soon as the law is fully in force, expanding its lineup “immediately after all provisions of the new regulation come into effect.”

Why this matters for Russia’s crypto market

The new rules mark Russia’s first comprehensive attempt to regulate—rather than ban—cryptocurrencies. Key implications include:

• Sanctions workaround: Legalizing cross-border crypto transactions helps Russian businesses and the government bypass Western financial restrictions, a strategy already in use since 2024.
• Institutional entry: Major banks like Sberbank entering the market could bring more stability and liquidity to crypto trading in Russia.
• Retail access with limits: While ordinary Russians can now legally buy crypto, strict annual caps may curb speculative trading.
• Exchange compliance rush: Existing platforms have six months to meet the new standards or risk shutting down.

What happens next

The law rolls out in stages:

• September 1, 2026: Core trading and exchange regulations take effect.
• March 1, 2027: Deadline for existing exchanges to comply.
• September 1, 2027: Remaining provisions, including rules for issuing and circulating new crypto assets, begin.

Sberbank expects to launch its crypto wallet and loan products later in 2026, assuming central bank approvals proceed as planned.

Sources

• The Block: Russia’s largest bank forecasts $46 billion in first-year crypto exchange trading under new rules
• TASS: Sberbank predicts 4 trillion rubles in crypto trading volume under new law
• The Block: Putin signs Russia’s landmark crypto law