Saxo: Coinbase faces biggest fallout from CLARITY Act setback among crypto firms
Coinbase hit hardest by CLARITY Act failure, analyst says
Coinbase has more to lose than other crypto companies after the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, according to a strategist at Danish bank Saxo. The reasoning is that Coinbase runs a crypto exchange, so its business depends directly on the kind of US market-structure rules the bill was meant to create.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, commonly called the CLARITY Act, is a US legislative proposal that would set clearer rules for how digital assets are classified, traded, and regulated. Its failure in the Senate has already pushed down the share prices of several crypto-linked companies.
Key numbers from the report
- Senate vote: 49 senators voted against invoking cloture (a procedure that ends debate), 50 voted in favor. 60 votes were needed to advance the bill.
- Initial selloff: Shares of Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy each fell between 5% and 10% after the Tuesday vote.
- Wednesday decline: The same three stocks were down another 2% to 6% in early Wednesday trading, according to Yahoo Finance data cited in the report.
- Senate calendar: Lawmakers are targeting December 18 for adjournment, with midterm elections on November 3.
What Saxo's note says
In a Wednesday note, Saxo strategist Ruben Dalfovo wrote that Coinbase (ticker: COIN) is "most exposed" to the outcome of the CLARITY Act. That is because market-structure rules could decide who has to register as what kind of business, which crypto assets can be traded, and who is allowed to take part in US crypto markets.
"Coinbase is most exposed to clearer market rules because trading and crypto participation directly affect its business," Dalfovo wrote.
Saxo drew a contrast with the other two companies. Circle (CRCL), which issues the USDC stablecoin (a type of cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar), is more tied to how widely USDC is adopted and to the interest it earns on its reserves. Strategy (MSTR), a company that holds large amounts of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, is mostly affected by Bitcoin's price and by how it finances those holdings.
How the bill stalled in the Senate
The CLARITY Act failed a key procedural vote on Tuesday. Senators voted 49 to 50 against invoking cloture on a motion to proceed to the bill, falling well short of the 60 votes needed. A successful cloture vote would have limited further debate and moved the bill toward consideration on the Senate floor.
Ethics provisions remained a major sticking point, even after last-minute concessions aimed at addressing concerns over public officials' crypto interests.
Market reaction across crypto stocks
After the vote, shares of Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy all dropped between 5% and 10%, even though the bill would have affected each business in different ways. The selloff continued into early Wednesday, with all three stocks down between 2% and 6%.
What is confirmed
- The CLARITY Act failed a cloture motion in the US Senate on Tuesday, 49-50.
- Saxo strategist Ruben Dalfovo said in a Wednesday note that Coinbase is the most exposed to the bill's outcome.
- Shares of Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy fell 5% to 10% after the vote and another 2% to 6% the next day.
What is still unclear
Whether the bill can be revived this year is uncertain. The Senate has a limited legislative calendar ahead of the November 3 midterm elections and is targeting a December 18 adjournment. It is not clear from the report whether lawmakers plan another attempt before the current Congress ends.
Why this matters
The CLARITY Act was meant to settle long-standing questions about how crypto assets are regulated in the US, including which agency oversees which products and who can legally trade them. Saxo's note suggests that an exchange like Coinbase, whose main business is crypto trading, would feel the impact of those rules more sharply than companies whose value depends on other factors, such as a stablecoin's adoption or a Bitcoin treasury's structure.