Standard Chartered shifts $2 trillion stablecoin target to 2030 as supply stalls

Stablecoin supply growth has paused, pushing the $2 trillion target two years later

Standard Chartered Bank now expects the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by 2030, two years later than its previous 2028 estimate. The delay comes because stablecoin supply growth has stalled over the past year.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, said supply remains near $309 billion. He views the slowdown as a temporary cycle tied to weaker crypto market activity, not a permanent shift.

Despite the flat supply, transaction usage is rising fast. Monthly stablecoin transfer value has averaged nearly $10 trillion this year, up from $4 trillion in 2025. Activity peaked at $19 trillion in May.

Key numbers from the report

• Stablecoin supply: $309 billion (unchanged from recent months)
• $2 trillion market forecast: shifted from 2028 to 2030
• Average monthly transfers this year: ~$10 trillion (vs $4 trillion in 2025)
• Monthly transfer record: $19 trillion in May
• Overall stablecoin velocity: doubled to ~30 transactions per dollar (from 15 in 2025)
• USDC velocity: increased to ~80 transactions per dollar (from 45 in 2025)
• USDT velocity: steady at ~7 transactions per dollar

What the bank says about usage patterns

Kendrick noted that USDT and USDC serve different markets. Tether (USDT) is mainly used for dollar savings in emerging economies. USD Coin (USDC) is used more for payments, financial transactions, and early payments between AI agents.

The bank sees the most competition ahead in payments and transactions in developed markets. Potential challengers include Open USD (OUSD), Global Dollar Network (USDG), infrastructure provider M^0, and a planned multi-bank network called A+.

Kendrick said yield capture and regulatory rules will shape how this sector develops.

Regulation remains a key risk

The report highlighted that regulation is a major uncertainty. Much depends on whether other countries adopt rules similar to the U.S. GENIUS Act, which takes effect in January 2027.

Kendrick warned that if global regulators closely follow the GENIUS Act, it could threaten Tether's dominance in emerging markets. He added that U.S.-style rules might also boost competition from bank-backed and multi-issuer stablecoins.

What is confirmed

- Standard Chartered updated its $2 trillion stablecoin market forecast to 2030.

- Stablecoin supply has remained between $300 billion and $320 billion for the past year.

- Monthly transfer volume has nearly doubled since 2025.

- Stablecoin velocity has doubled this year.

- The U.S. GENIUS Act is scheduled to take effect in January 2027.

What is still unclear

- It is unconfirmed whether stablecoin supply will resume growth soon or remain flat through 2028.

- The impact of the GENIUS Act on global stablecoin adoption outside the U.S. is still unknown.

- How much market share major challengers like OUSD, USDG, and M^0 will capture is not yet clear.

Why this matters for crypto users

Stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to the value of traditional currencies, often used for fast, low-cost transfers and trading. For everyday users and businesses, higher transaction volumes show that stablecoins are being used more actively for payments and settlements, not just held as investments.

The shift in forecast suggests that while demand for stablecoin services is growing, creating new tokens may slow down until market conditions improve. Regulatory changes in the U.S. could also reshape which stablecoins become popular in different regions.

Sources

• The Block

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