Trader bets $68 million on bitcoin reaching $90,000 after U.S. midterms

Trader bets $68 million on bitcoin reaching $90,000 after U.S. midterms

Traders on decentralized options platform Derive have built a large position betting bitcoin will rise after the U.S. mid-term elections. CoinDesk reports that on Oct. 20 a single wallet bought 800 contracts of $90,000 call options expiring Nov. 6. Derive told CoinDesk the position is about $68 million in face value at current prices and is the largest open bitcoin position on the platform.

On Oct. 26 bitcoin was trading around $80,000 with little movement from the previous day. Ether, XRP, solana, dogecoin and BNB were also flat.

Key numbers from Derive data

• 800 contracts of $90,000 calls expiring Nov. 6 were bought on Oct. 20. Each contract represents one bitcoin.
• Derive described the face value as approximately $68 million at current bitcoin prices.
• The wallet sold 400 contracts of $100,000 calls expiring March 2027 and 400 contracts of $90,000 calls expiring Oct. 30, collecting about $940,000 net after financing the purchase.
• Market-implied probability of bitcoin above $100,000 by Christmas rose from 9.7% a week earlier to 12%.
• Implied chance of bitcoin below $70,000 by Christmas fell from 15.6% to 11%.

How the trade was structured

A call option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a set price on or before a specific date. That locks in the right to buy at today’s agreed price in the future. The position was not a simple outright purchase. Proceeds from selling other calls were used to help fund it.

Derive compared with Deribit

Derive is described as the world’s largest decentralized exchange, or DEX, by notional volume and open interest, according to data source DefiLlama. It is much smaller than centralized exchange Deribit, which has operated for a decade and records volume and open interest worth several billions of dollars each day. On Deribit, 25-delta skews for bitcoin and ether are negative at the front end. That means puts are pricier than calls, indicating a bias for downside protection.

What is confirmed

• A single wallet bought 800 $90,000 call contracts expiring Nov. 6 on Derive on Oct. 20.
• Derive told CoinDesk the face value is about $68 million and it is the largest open bitcoin position on the platform.
• The wallet also sold 400 $100,000 calls expiring March 2027 and 400 $90,000 calls expiring Oct. 30.
• Derive-reported implied probabilities for bitcoin above $100,000 by Christmas increased to 12%, and the implied probability of bitcoin below $70,000 by Christmas decreased to 11%.

What is still unclear

The source does not name the trader or identify the wallet owner. It does not say why the position was opened or whether it will be held to expiry.

Sources

• CoinDesk