UBS predicts two Fed rate hikes after strong August job report, adding pressure on Bitcoin
UBS forecasts two Fed hikes after strong jobs data
UBS Global Wealth Management now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a quarter‑percentage point in both September and December 2026. The bank had previously predicted no policy change this year.
Key points
- UBS cites a strong August labor market – 162,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.1% – and inflation concerns.
- Futures markets see about a 58% chance of a September hike, up from 52% before the jobs report.
- Higher rate expectations could keep Treasury yields up, making Bitcoin, which earns no interest, less attractive.
- Bitcoin was trading around $79,375 at 14:02 UTC on September 7.
Reuters report on UBS outlook
According to Reuters, UBS now forecasts 25‑basis‑point Fed increases in September and December after the August employment numbers and hawkish Fed communication.
August labor market details
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 162,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Hiring outpaced the average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior year.
How higher rates affect Bitcoin
Bitcoin does not pay interest. When safe assets such as Treasury bonds offer higher yields, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin rises. This can reduce demand for the cryptocurrency and increase financing costs for leveraged positions.
What is confirmed
- UBS’s new forecast of two 25‑basis‑point Fed hikes (September and December).
- August U.S. job growth of 162,000 and unemployment at 4.1%.
- Bitcoin price around $79,375 on September 7.
What remains uncertain
- Whether inflation data, especially the August CPI released on September 11, will keep the December hike on the table.
- The exact impact of higher rates on Bitcoin’s price, which depends on investor sentiment and other market factors.
Why this matters for crypto investors
Higher U.S. rates can make dollar‑denominated, interest‑bearing assets more appealing than Bitcoin, which offers no yield. This shift can lower risk appetite for crypto assets.
Upcoming events
- U.S. CPI data on September 11.
- Federal Reserve policy meeting on September 15‑16.
