Analysts: Bitcoin Rallies May Revive Corporate Treasury Buying, but Selective
Corporate Bitcoin buying slowed sharply in the third quarter
Corporate purchases of Bitcoin could pick up toward the end of 2026 and into 2027 if the cryptocurrency rallies, according to analysts who spoke to Cointelegraph. But those analysts say investors are likely to be pickier about which treasury companies they choose to finance.
A Bitcoin treasury company is a business that holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet, often funded by selling shares. Buying slowed in the third quarter of 2026, the analysts said.
Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen said the slowdown was broad. Strategy's Bitcoin holdings rose by a net 1,666 BTC in Q3, down from 83,901 BTC in Q2, according to company filings. Other public companies added a net 5,617 BTC, compared with 45,725 BTC the quarter before, based on figures Rasmussen supplied.
Key numbers from the quarter
- Strategy's net Bitcoin increase: 1,666 BTC in Q3, versus 83,901 BTC in Q2, per company filings.
- Other public companies' net additions: 5,617 BTC in Q3, versus 45,725 BTC in Q2, per figures from Rasmussen.
- Spot Bitcoin net inflow in Q3: $6.4 billion, per Rasmussen.
- US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows last week: about $229 million, a second straight week of withdrawals, per SoSoValue data.
What the analysts said
Rasmussen said he expects corporate Bitcoin purchases to re-accelerate as early as this year. Bitfinex head of derivatives Jag Kooner said renewed buying could follow if treasury companies regain premiums to the value of their Bitcoin holdings. A premium means the company's shares trade above the value of the Bitcoin it holds, which lets it issue more shares and buy more Bitcoin without reducing each shareholder's Bitcoin exposure per share.
That model became popular during the 2025 treasury boom. When premiums narrowed or vanished, issuing new shares became less attractive and limited companies' ability to fund more purchases. "Shareholders have seen premiums collapse and some companies sell into weakness. Investors are now pricing these businesses on funding costs, balance-sheet discipline and bitcoin per share," Kooner said.
"A rally could therefore restart buying, particularly among companies with credible financing structures but a return to last year's indiscriminate capital raising looks unlikely," he said.
Established treasuries may get capital first
Bitwise's October market report also showed a decline in the number of Bitcoin treasuries in Q3, driven by smaller companies dropping their Bitcoin treasury strategies. Rasmussen said a dozen companies that entered during the 2025 treasury boom sold their entire holdings, mostly to repay debt or return cash to shareholders after their stock premiums disappeared.
Kooner expects established players to attract capital first if buying resumes. "Initially, capital would likely gravitate towards established players, which have the scale, the liquidity in their own securities and the track record investors now demand," he said.
Rasmussen said most of the largest corporate buyers outside Strategy were operating businesses adding Bitcoin from cash flow rather than issuing stock to fund purchases. He called that "a smaller source of demand but a healthier one."
Kooner cautioned that a broad wave of new treasury companies would most likely arrive late in a rally, once premiums have widened, and said that timing is itself a warning sign.
ETFs could support a recovery on their own
Rasmussen said there would be other drivers for a Bitcoin recovery even without another corporate buying boom, pointing to $6.4 billion in spot Bitcoin net inflow in Q3. "Corporate purchases are one source of demand for bitcoin, but not the only source," he said.
Kooner agreed that ETF demand could sustain a recovery for a period, but cautioned that some of that activity reflects basis trades that can unwind quickly. A basis trade is a strategy that aims to profit from price differences between related markets. "Without corporate buying, the market loses a price-insensitive bid and becomes more dependent on allocators who rebalance with macro conditions," he said.
Recent flows show ETF demand can reverse. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $229 million in net outflows last week, their second consecutive week of net withdrawals, according to SoSoValue data.
What is confirmed
- Strategy's net Bitcoin holdings increased by 1,666 BTC in Q3, down from 83,901 BTC in Q2, according to company filings cited in the report.
- Other public companies added a net 5,617 BTC in Q3, compared with 45,725 BTC in Q2, according to figures Rasmussen supplied.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $229 million in net outflows last week, a second straight week of withdrawals, per SoSoValue data.
What is still unclear
Whether corporate Bitcoin buying actually accelerates depends on a rally that has not happened yet. The timing of any renewed buying is an expectation from the analysts, not a confirmed event. The claim that a dozen companies sold their entire holdings during the quarter comes from Rasmussen and was not independently verified in the source material.
Why it matters
Treasury companies have been a source of demand for Bitcoin that does not react much to price. If that buying stays weak, the analysts say the market leans more on ETF investors and on allocators who adjust holdings based on broader economic conditions, which can shift quickly.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.