CryptoQuant CEO Says Bitcoin Could Find Support Near $30,000 Even If ETF and Corporate Buyers Exit

CryptoQuant CEO pushes back on a $10,000 Bitcoin forecast

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even if large institutional holders sell off everything they have bought. He made the argument in a post on X on Oct. 16, replying to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.

McGlone had warned that Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000. Ju's response looks at on-chain data — information recorded on the Bitcoin network itself — and says the average price at which coins last moved would still point to a floor near $30,000.

Bitcoin was trading near $82,000 over the weekend cited by the report, after slipping below $80,000 during the week's selloff.

Key numbers behind the debate

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs, funds that hold Bitcoin on behalf of investors, have drawn $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows through Oct. 16, according to Farside Investors.
• CoinGecko tracks 1.302 million BTC across 180 public-company treasuries, about 6.2% of Bitcoin's maximum supply.
• Those corporate holdings were worth roughly $106 billion at recent prices.
• Michael Saylor-led Strategy alone holds 848,250 BTC, about 65% of the public-company total.
• A drop to $30,000 would be a roughly 63% fall from $82,000. That would still be about three times higher than McGlone's $10,000 target.

What Ju says the on-chain data shows

Ju's case rests on Bitcoin's MVRV ratio. MVRV compares Bitcoin's market value with the value of all coins at the prices they last moved on-chain. That second measure is called the realized price, and it is often used to estimate the average cost paid by holders.

Bitcoin's realized price stood near $53,855 on Oct. 18, according to Perly's on-chain data. Using that as a fixed reference, a $30,000 market price would put MVRV around 0.56 — a level linked to deep capitulation, or heavy selling by discouraged holders. McGlone's $10,000 target would put the ratio near 0.19. The report notes realized price would itself change as coins moved during a selloff.

Ju said Bitcoin's worst historical bottom came at about 0.6 MVRV. He cited a reading near 0.55 at the January 2015 low and roughly 0.46 in November 2011. More recent bottoms were around 0.69 in 2018 and 0.78 in 2022. A move toward 0.2 would sit outside those precedents.

He also pointed to investors who bought Bitcoin in 2019 and held through later collapses. In his view, that group would have to give up despite already surviving two drawdowns of roughly 75% for Bitcoin to reach $10,000.

What McGlone says

In an Oct. 16 post titled "A Bitcoin $10,000 Reversion Path Could Trigger Tumbling Dominoes," McGlone argued that Bitcoin's rise above $100,000 in 2025, gold's surge past $5,000 and rising government bond yields could signal a reversal across risk assets. He sees support toward $10,000, especially if US equities suffer a 20% drawdown.

A different risk in the institutional era

The report notes that a large holder does not need to lose faith in Bitcoin to sell. ETF redemptions can turn investor exits into spot-market selling, and corporate financing needs or balance-sheet pressures can drive treasury sales. The market price depends on the bids available when those sales happen, not the average historical cost of the coins.

What is still unclear

Both figures are scenario forecasts, not confirmed outcomes. Ju's $30,000 level assumes a full exit by ETF investors and corporate treasuries, a situation that has not happened. McGlone's $10,000 target depends on wider financial conditions, including a 20% drop in US equities. The source material does not say when, or whether, either scenario would play out.

Sources

• CryptoSlate

Read also: Analysts: Bitcoin Rallies May Revive Corporate Treasury Buying, but Selective