Analysts split over whether bitcoin can reach $100,000 by year-end

Analysts disagree on bitcoin's year-end direction

Crypto asset manager Bitwise says bitcoin could trade above $100,000 before the end of 2026, pointing to institutional buying and demand for hard assets. Other market watchers are more cautious, expecting inflation and elevated interest rates to keep the price in a lower range.

The two views show a split over timing. Analysts broadly agree that institutional investment, clearer regulation and worries about government debt support bitcoin over the longer term. They disagree on whether those forces can produce a breakout before December 31, 2026.

Bitcoin was trading around $81,500 when the CoinDesk report was published.

Key numbers from the report

• Bitwise's base view: bitcoin ends 2026 higher, potentially above $100,000.
• LO:TECH's base case: an $85,000–$95,000 trading range into year-end.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September.
• Inflation data released Oct. 14 showed consumer prices up 0.6% from the previous month and core prices up 0.3%.

What Bitwise's research chief says

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk he expects bitcoin to come out of the coming weeks' uncertainty at a higher valuation. He named three longer-term drivers: institutional buying through exchange-traded funds (ETFs, funds that hold an asset and trade on an exchange) and corporate purchases; demand for hard assets during inflation, rising debt and currency debasement; and clearer rules that lower the perceived risk of owning crypto.

Rasmussen said he believes those tailwinds outweigh the potential headwinds. At the same time, he expects volatility around a possible late-October Federal Reserve rate increase and November's U.S. midterm elections, and said a breakout would be difficult in that environment.

Inflation and rate risks cap the outlook

Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO:TECH, a London-based crypto trading and market data firm, has a more cautious base case of an $85,000–$95,000 range into year-end. He said macro conditions have worked against bitcoin all year, with the Fed hiking in September and a December hike priced at roughly 75%.

McCarthy said a move back above $100,000 would require expectations of a December hike to shift toward a pause, helped by easing oil prices and inflation. In the Oct. 14 data, gasoline accounted for more than half of the headline increase in consumer prices.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, described a similar tension between persistent inflation and weakening employment. He said cooling prices would give the Fed more room to respond to labor-market weakness, while further inflation pressure could keep policy restrictive and weigh on bitcoin.

Traders watch Treasury yields and thin leverage

Luca Invernizzi, senior derivatives trader at Laser Digital, Nomura's crypto subsidiary, expects bitcoin to stay largely a macro trade into year-end, taking its direction from longer-dated Treasury yields. CoinDesk's summary of the report also says Laser Digital sees potential for a short squeeze, while CoinShares says a sustained breakout would need renewed buying.

What is confirmed and what remains unclear

Confirmed from the report: the September rate increase of a quarter percentage point, the Oct. 14 inflation figures, the trading level around publication time, and the forecasts each named analyst gave to CoinDesk.

Still unclear: whether bitcoin reaches $100,000 before year-end, whether the Fed raises again in late October or December, and how inflation and oil prices will move. All of the price levels in this article are analyst estimates, not settled outcomes.

Why the split matters

The disagreement shows that bitcoin's near-term direction is being driven as much by U.S. monetary policy as by crypto-specific factors. Rasmussen said the uncertainty could create an opportunity for investors to build positions, while McCarthy expects the rate backdrop to keep weighing on the price. Readers should note that these are the analysts' own views, and none of this is investment advice.

Sources

• CoinDesk