Bitcoin closes below key support as stocks try to recover from tech sell-off

Bitcoin begins the week just above $82,000

Bitcoin started the third week of October trading at $82,000. The price move followed a weekly candle close below a support zone that analysts had been watching between $82,500 and $82,800.

The weekly close came in at $82,000. Stock markets, meanwhile, were attempting to recover from losses booked the previous week.

What to know this week

• South Korea's KOSPI Composite Index gained nearly 1.8% on Monday after tech-driven losses the week before.


• Markets have priced out two further Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes for 2026. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows 75% odds of only one 25-basis-point hike by the end of the year.


• Bitcoin closed the week below key local support after the Coinbase Premium Index hit -0.14, its lowest level since late June.

Asian stocks lead a rebound before big tech earnings

A lighter week of US economic data has shifted attention to company earnings, as stocks recover from last week's sell-off. About 15% of S&P 500 companies are due to report third-quarter results this week, including SpaceX on Tuesday and Tesla and Meta on Wednesday.

Tech-stock performance remains in focus after a major decline last week that started in South Korean markets. The KOSPI Composite Index lost 2.8% on Oct. 12 and fell to a weekly low of 5,455 on Thursday, bringing week-to-date losses temporarily to 17%.

The weakness spread to neighboring Asian markets before US equities weakened later in the week. The S&P 500 ended Friday down 2% for the week. As in early August, tech stocks faced heavy selling pressure over concerns about AI spending plans and related debt. In Korea, the threat of competition in semiconductor manufacturing from China added to the downturn.

Over the weekend, warnings of a "Black Monday" event on global stock markets spread on social media. The panic coincided with the 39th anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday crash, but appeared misplaced, with KOSPI gaining 1.8% on Monday and S&P 500 futures up 0.7% at the time of writing.

Fed rate-hike expectations cool before the October meeting

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision on Oct. 28, markets have reduced their expectations for policy tightening.

Data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows 85% odds of rates staying in their current 3.75-4.00% range in October. The Fed's December meeting carries just 11% odds of another pause. Markets instead see a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, with a 50-basis-point move attracting 13% odds.

In a discussion with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last week, Fed chair Kevin Warsh avoided any hints of forward guidance on policy. This reinforced a pledge he made at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in August.

"I don't prejudge meetings. I don't believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year," he said.

Markets interpreted the lack of information as a dovish signal, strengthening the view that the Fed will hike rates just once more before 2027.

Market commentator Mosaic Asset Company took a more cautionary view, saying inflation trends would force the Fed to avoid easing off, keeping a headwind in place for crypto and risk assets.

The September reading of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), released last week, showed the ongoing impact of the Middle East crisis on fuel prices. PPI recorded its largest month-on-month increase since March 2022 at 1.7%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that half of the September increase in the index for final demand goods came from gasoline prices, which jumped 20.3%. Fuel also accounted for more than half of the September increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which beat expectations by 0.1% to reach 3.7% year-on-year.

Analysts see possible retests of $80,000 support

Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that the weekly close below the support zone could lead to further retests of $80,000.

"Such a Weekly Close would position Bitcoin for a potential bearish retest of ~$82500 into new resistance. And if that bearish retest occurs successfully then it could set price up for a drop below $80k within the next few weeks," he wrote in analysis on X.

Cointelegraph previously reported that September's local high near $87,000 now hosts multiple resistance levels, including the 2026 yearly open and its 20-month simple moving average.

Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged declining US investor demand as a returning headwind for bitcoin this month. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Coinbase's and Binance's BTC/USDT pairs, fell to -0.141 on Oct. 18, its lowest level since June 30.

"This reading is particularly significant. If the index remains in negative territory, it could indicate insufficient demand to absorb selling pressure, potentially increasing the likelihood of a continued price correction in the short term," CryptoQuant commented.

The weak demand contrasts with bitcoin holding gains made since the end of June, after bouncing from new multiyear lows under $58,000 on July 1.

What is confirmed

Bitcoin closed the week at $82,000, below a support zone of $82,500 to $82,800. KOSPI gained 1.8% on Monday. The S&P 500 finished Friday down 2% for the week. About 15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, including SpaceX, Tesla, and Meta.

The Fed's next rate decision is scheduled for Oct. 28. The FedWatch Tool shows 85% odds of rates staying in the current 3.75-4.00% range in October. September PPI rose 1.7% month-on-month, and September CPI came in at 3.7% year-on-year. The Coinbase Premium Index hit -0.141 on Oct. 18, its lowest since June 30.

What is still unclear

It is not confirmed whether bitcoin will retest or fall below $80,000. That view is analysis from Rekt Capital and CryptoQuant, not a confirmed outcome. The "Black Monday" warnings were social media speculation and did not materialize in Monday trading.

Markets and at least one commentator disagree on Fed policy direction: markets expect only one more hike before 2027, while Mosaic Asset Company said inflation would keep policy tighter.

Why it matters

Bitcoin and tech stocks have moved together during recent sell-offs, so the upcoming earnings reports and the Fed's October decision are key events that could affect how both markets trade. Weak US investor demand, as measured by the Coinbase Premium Index, is a factor some analysts say could add to selling pressure on bitcoin.

Sources

• Cointelegraph