Anthropic's IPO is weeks away, but crypto traders are already betting on it with leveraged contracts
Traders bet on Anthropic's listing with borrowed crypto money
Even though Anthropic's initial public offering has not happened, traders can already place leveraged bets on it using crypto contracts. Two contracts on Hyperliquid, a decentralized crypto exchange whose trades settle on a public blockchain, track the company. Hyperliquid is a crypto trading platform where transactions are recorded on an open ledger rather than held by a single company.
Hyperliquid's ANT contract fell about 20% in its first hour. It carries up to 10-times leverage, and about $1.7 million in positions were open at the time of reporting. Neither contract is backed by actual Anthropic shares, and owning one gives no claim on the company.
Two contracts are available: Entropy's ANTH, which tracks Anthropic's valuation, and trade.xyz's ANT, which tracks the price of one share. U.S. traders are not allowed to use these markets.
Key numbers
- ANT dropped roughly 20% in its first hour, opening near $138 and falling to about $110 later that morning.
- Leverage reaches up to 10-fold, meaning a 10% move against a position can wipe out the money posted as collateral.
- About $1.7 million was in open positions at one point, with $2.2 million in open interest and $8.7 million of trading volume reported.
- ANT settles in USDC, a stablecoin, which is a crypto token designed to keep a stable value instead of swinging with the market.
- Trade.xyz has set Nov. 20 as an expected listing date, but said that is its own estimate, not something Anthropic has confirmed.
What these contracts actually are
Both contracts are perpetual swaps. A perpetual swap is a type of derivatives contract that does not expire, and it uses a periodic funding payment between traders to keep the contract price close to a reference price.
Entropy's ANTH is priced by valuation, with each $1 of price standing for $1 billion in company value. So a reading near 1,880 would value Anthropic at roughly $1.9 trillion.
ANT references one share of Anthropic's Class A stock. Its price follows a 30-minute moving average based on orders resting on the order book. Trade.xyz also applies what it calls discovery bounds, which keep the price inside a band around a reference point that can reset only a limited number of times.
These contracts do not deliver shares and do not claim to represent them. The money behind each position is the trader's own collateral, and winners are paid by losers on the other side. Hyperliquid runs the underlying trading, while the market operator chooses the price sources, sets leverage limits and caps, and can pause trading.
What Anthropic has said
Anthropic has not commented publicly on the two Hyperliquid contracts. However, its help page states that anyone claiming to sell Anthropic shares to the public through forward contracts, tokenized securities, or similar mechanisms is likely offering something worthless.
It is not clear whether that statement covers perpetual contracts, which are futures-style agreements that never expire. DeFi researcher Petro Dmytrilev said an IPOP conveys no shares, no allocation, no voting rights and no claim against the issuer, and only provides price exposure.
How it could connect to the IPO
Trade.xyz says ANT will convert into a standard perpetual contract that tracks the underlying stock's price, typically in the first regular session after the shares begin trading. If the listing is delayed, the contract has a 60-day grace period through Jan. 19, 2027.
If Anthropic still has not listed by then, ANT settles in cash based on the average price the contract traded at since launch, though Trade.xyz says it can use a different method if that average would not be fair. The IPO price itself is set by Anthropic and its banks and is independent of these derivative markets.
Why investors expect a high valuation
The Financial Times reported investors expect a valuation between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion. Fox Business's Liz Claman said pricing remains on track for Nov. 19-20. Anthropic's last private investment round in May valued it at $965 billion on a post-money basis.
Trade.xyz said its earlier pre-IPO contracts tracked closely with opening prices. In a letter to the SEC, it said five completed markets finished within about 0.4% to 7% of each stock's opening price. For SpaceX, it said the contract sat at $172.84 the day before trading began, the IPO was priced at $135 and the stock opened at $150. Those figures come from Trade.xyz and an advocacy group that co-signed the letter and have not been independently verified.
Risks and who can participate
The main risk for these pre-IPO markets is thin liquidity, which can make trading difficult and lead to sharp price moves. In May, a SpaceX contract on Hyperliquid fell about 45% in 30 minutes and liquidated 405 users, when open interest was under $2.9 million.
Leverage amplifies every price move, and the operator controls the starting price, the pricing rules and the power to pause trading. Hyperliquid restricts derivatives trading to users outside the U.S., and Trade.xyz says it uses geoblocking and wallet screening. Hyperliquid's terms also bar the U.S., Ontario and sanctioned territories, but the platform does not verify users' identities.
Regulators have taken action against similar platforms. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes pleaded guilty in 2022 to failing to maintain anti-money-laundering checks; he was sentenced to home detention and probation and later pardoned. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao was sentenced to prison in 2024 for disguising U.S. customer locations and was subsequently pardoned. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved the first perpetual on a U.S. exchange in May and flagged equity-based perpetuals for joint review with the SEC.
What is confirmed and what is not
Confirmed: two perpetual contracts tracking Anthropic trade on Hyperliquid, ANT fell about 20% early in its launch, and neither contract is backed by Anthropic shares. The U.S. market is restricted for these contracts.
Not confirmed: whether Anthropic's warning about unauthorized share sales extends to perpetual contracts, the exact listing date, and whether pre-IPO contract results track opening prices outside of Trade.xyz's own reported cases.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
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