Bernstein analysts forecast bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027, cut Strategy price target

Bernstein predicts bitcoin could hit $150,000 by mid-2027

Analysts at Bernstein, a research firm, expect bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027. They believe a trend called the "debasement trade"—where governments may weaken their currencies to manage debt—could push more investors toward bitcoin. The firm also sees bitcoin peaking at around $300,000 in 2029.

Bernstein lowered its price target for Strategy, a company that holds a large amount of bitcoin, from $450 to $350. The new target is based on an updated outlook for bitcoin’s price cycle and the company’s financial situation.

Key details from the report

• Bitcoin’s base case price: $150,000 by mid-2027, $300,000 by 2029.
• Bull case scenario: $200,000 by mid-2027, $500,000 by 2029.
• Long-term forecast: Around $1 million by the end of 2033.
• Strategy’s new price target: $350, down from $450.
• Strategy holds 840,447 bitcoin, about 4% of the total supply.
• 59% of bitcoin’s supply has not moved in the past 12 months.

Why Bernstein believes bitcoin could rise

The analysts argue that governments may turn to currency debasement—reducing the value of money—to handle rising debt. This could increase demand for assets like bitcoin, which cannot be easily created or diluted. Bernstein points to recent trading activity in bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as early signs of this trend.

A Bloomberg analyst noted that the "debasement trade" is replacing the earlier focus on artificial intelligence (AI) in ETF trading. BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF and SPDR’s gold ETF have returned to the top 10 most-traded ETFs, displacing some semiconductor funds.

What is confirmed

• Bernstein’s base case forecast: $150,000 by mid-2027, $300,000 by 2029.
• Bernstein’s bull case forecast: $200,000 by mid-2027, $500,000 by 2029.
• Bernstein’s long-term forecast: Around $1 million by the end of 2033.
• Bernstein cut Strategy’s price target to $350 from $450.
• Strategy holds 840,447 bitcoin, about 4% of the total supply.
• 59% of bitcoin’s supply has not moved in the past 12 months.
• Bitcoin has gained 28% over the past 10 days after a 50% drop since October 2025.

What is still unclear

• Whether governments will actually turn to currency debasement as a policy.
• How quickly institutional investors will adopt bitcoin in response to macroeconomic trends.
• The exact timeline for bitcoin’s price movements beyond the base and bull case scenarios.

Why this matters for investors

Bernstein’s report suggests that bitcoin could benefit from broader economic trends, such as rising government debt and potential currency debasement. The firm also highlights increased access to bitcoin through ETFs and corporate treasury purchases, which may help stabilize its price compared to past cycles.

For Strategy, the lowered price target reflects a more cautious outlook, but the company’s large bitcoin holdings and financial position could still make it a key player in the market.

Sources

• The Block