Bitcoin drops below $83,000 as analysts see $80,000-$90,000 range for Q4

Bitcoin retreats from $87,000 to near $82,000

Bitcoin dropped below $83,000 on Thursday, falling from a high above $87,000 last Friday. The pullback comes as analysts at QCP Capital forecast the cryptocurrency will trade between $80,000 and $90,000 during the fourth quarter.

The move follows a day of significant outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which are funds that track bitcoin's price and allow investors to gain exposure without directly holding the cryptocurrency.

What QCP Capital sees for Q4

In its base case scenario, QCP expects bitcoin to stay within the $80,000 to $90,000 range for the entire quarter. The firm identified the $80,000 to $82,000 area as a zone where it would consider buying bitcoin, while it would reduce exposure around $88,000 to $90,000 if ETF inflows do not improve.

The firm expects ETF inflows to remain positive but inconsistent throughout the quarter. Oil prices are currently elevated but stable, and uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act continues to weigh on the market.

In its more optimistic scenario, QCP places bitcoin above $100,000 if there are sustained ETF inflows, growth in stablecoin supply, a Federal Reserve pause in response to weaker employment data, a softer dollar, lower real yields, and progress on the Clarity Act. The firm said it would want to see spot buying support any move above the range, rather than a rally driven by traders closing short positions.

On the downside, QCP sees bitcoin falling below $68,000 to $70,000 if fighting in the Middle East intensifies, pushing oil prices higher and prompting further Fed rate hikes. The firm also cited the possibility of renewed ETF outflows and a corporate bitcoin holder being forced to sell as catalysts for that scenario.

ETF outflows reverse recent gains

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $487.1 million in net outflows on Wednesday, reversing $118.8 million in inflows from the previous day, according to data compiled by The Block. BlackRock's IBIT led the withdrawals with $207.7 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $105.2 million and Ark Invest/21Shares' ARKB at $101.7 million.

The funds have recorded $165.6 million in net outflows over the past five trading sessions, following a prior nine-day inflow streak that totaled $3.1 billion.

Glassnode sees buy orders providing support

Analysts at Glassnode said bitcoin had fallen back from a sell wall at $86,500 toward several large buy orders. The biggest buy order sits around $81,000. The firm expects those bids to help cushion further declines.

One year since the all-time high

Bitcoin's peak above $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025 was followed almost immediately by the Oct. 10 liquidation crash, from which the crypto market has not recovered. One year on, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo told The Block that previous bitcoin cycles have typically taken 12 to 13 months from their highs to reach a bottom.

However, Perfumo said bitcoin may have found its bottom sooner this cycle. The cryptocurrency's 54% drawdown to its July low is much smaller compared with the 70% to 85% typical declines seen in prior cycles.

"The arrival of spot ETFs brought in a new class of investors, while a more supportive regulatory environment and growing use of crypto across traditional financial services have strengthened the market's fundamentals," Perfumo said. "With rates high and capital facing more competition from areas like AI, today's bitcoin buyers are accumulating despite a higher opportunity cost. That suggests the holder base is investing with strong conviction rather than simply chasing momentum."

Macro factors to watch

After the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes were released on Wednesday, Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda said they leaned toward further tightening, though traders were still pricing a pause at the October meeting. Meanwhile, initial U.S. jobless claims came in at 197,000 on Thursday, below the 200,000 consensus forecast, with the previous week's figure revised up to 199,000.

Kraken's Perfumo said long-term interest rates remain one of the most important variables for bitcoin's next move. If financial conditions ease, particularly if spurred by further policy intervention via injections of liquidity, bitcoin could have a shorter path towards its previous high, he said.

Looking ahead, QCP analysts identified the Oct. 27-28 Fed meeting, the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, and the Nov. 4 Treasury refunding announcement as dates to watch this quarter.

Sources

• The Block