Bitcoin Eyes 20-Month Moving Average Before Potential New Highs
Bitcoin Tries to Break Through Key Trend Line
Bitcoin is preparing to challenge its 20-month moving average, a technical level that CryptoQuant says could determine whether the cryptocurrency heads to new all-time highs or faces further downside. The 20-month simple moving average sits at $87,165 as of Oct. 16.
The on-chain analytics platform noted that Bitcoin recently completed what it called a "reset" phase after its most recent all-time high of $126,200 set in October 2025. The price has since pulled back, trading near a support zone around $82,442, where some retail investors fear the current peak may already be in place.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
- Bitcoin's 20-month simple moving average (SMA) is at $87,165
- The upper Bollinger Band sits at $121,640, just below the October 2025 all-time high of $126,200
- The lower Bollinger Band is at $52,694
- The 2026 opening price level of $87,490 adds confluence near the SMA
- Large walls of ask liquidity remain visible across exchange order books in the area
What the 20-Month Trend Line Represents
CryptoQuant's Bollinger Bands metric is built around the 20-month SMA. The zone between the lower band and the SMA is labeled an "accumulation base," while the SMA itself is called an "inflection frontier." This frontier marks a previous point where investor selling pressure pushed the price below the line — most recently in December 2025.
Historically, when Bitcoin has broken back above this trend line from below, it has gone on to reach new cycle highs, according to CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain.
On-Chain Data Points to Bullish Momentum
CryptoQuant's bull-bear market cycle indicator, which tracks composite on-chain profitability data, currently reads 0.186 — a significant increase from 0.042 in August. In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the bear market was "over" based on readings from this same indicator.
Separately, XWIN Research Japan flagged three on-chain metrics in early October that they said provided "cautious optimism" for bullish momentum to continue through the end of the month.
Why This Matters for Bitcoin Traders
The 20-month SMA acts as a major technical threshold. A successful reclaim above it could signal that the post-all-time-high correction is concluding and that Bitcoin is positioning for another leg higher. Failure to hold above this level could keep the price range-bound or push it toward the accumulation base zone below.
Meanwhile, some retail investors viewing the current price around $82,000 as a potential top may be overlooking the on-chain data that suggests the broader market cycle remains constructive.
What Is Still Unclear
While CryptoQuant cites historical precedent that breakouts above the 20-month SMA have led to new highs, there is no guarantee this pattern will repeat. The article does not confirm whether Bitcoin will successfully reclaim the level, and macroeconomic headwinds — including a recent US PPI report that contributed to Bitcoin dipping below $80,000 — could influence the outcome.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.