CryptoQuant's onchain charts keep Bitcoin ‘Uptober’ thesis alive
CryptoQuant flags potential October bottom
CryptoQuant published on‑chain analysis on Monday that highlights a possible bottom for Bitcoin’s price in early October. The report says exchange reserves have fallen, whales have not sold, and demand metrics are moving toward positive territory, which some see as a sign that October could still be strong.
Key indicators from the analysis
- On‑chain data points to a potential October low.
- Bitcoin exchange reserves are 1.7% lower than mid‑September.
- Whale holdings stay above 3 million BTC.
- Apparent demand metric is near neutral, its second approach to positive readings in 2026.
What XWIN Research Japan says
The analysis is from CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan. It states, “Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging,” and notes, “Less political uncertainty after the vote could help investors reassess allocations.” The report also adds, “‘Uptober’ need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance.”
Additional comments from Bitwise and CryptoQuant CEO
Bitwise said its Q3 on‑chain data pointed to a “crypto spring.” CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also commented that the bear market is over and that a new bull market has begun, according to the article.
Confirmed facts and data points
- Exchange reserves fell from 2.726 million BTC on Sept. 20 to 2.68 million BTC on Tuesday, a 1.7% decrease.
- Large‑holder (whale) holdings remain above 3 million BTC despite BTC/USD falling from $87,000 on Oct. 2 to near $80,000 on Oct. 8.
- Apparent demand, a metric that compares newly mined BTC with changes in dormant supply, turned negative for most of 2026, had a brief positive 30‑day period in August, and is now close to neutral.
- External headwinds mentioned include 24‑year high US bond yields, rising oil prices and cooling capital inflows to exchange‑traded products.
Uncertainties and required confirmation
The analysis itself says a confirmed bottom will need sustained ETF inflows, stronger US spot buying and continued demand recovery. Until these conditions are met, the outlook remains cautious.
Why this matters for crypto markets
If the on‑chain signals are correct, Bitcoin could follow its historically strong October performance. The report also links reduced political uncertainty after the upcoming US Midterm Elections to possible allocation changes by investors.
Next steps for the bullish outlook
XWIN says confirmation of a bottom depends on continued ETF inflows, stronger spot buying in the US and further recovery in demand metrics. The article notes that a correction can also lay the foundation for the next advance, as “Uptober” may not be a straight climb.
Sources
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